the essential
General Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the magazine Défense nationale, expresses his fear about the use of new long-range missiles by Russia and warns the West about the continuation of the conflict.
First trench warfare, then the arrival of drones and now missiles. Should we be afraid of this escalation?
Rather than giving in to fear, you have to be realistic. In this sense, we must continue to show determination. Since the failure of his initial objectives, Vladimir Putin has intensified his strategy, initiated on February 24, 2022, with a violent escalation targeting Ukraine. A few days ago we were still talking about negotiations. From now on, for him, negotiation is only possible through the capitulation of Ukraine. He has a stated desire: that of the defeat of Ukraine, without making concessions and before the arrival of the Trump administration in the United States.
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What can we expect in the coming days?
There will be no period of relaxation in my opinion. Russia will continue to bomb Ukraine while continuing to want to gain as much ground as possible and therefore weaken the Europeans to scare them. The missile launch of November 21 constitutes a clear message from Moscow. On the other hand, what we must not forget for Putin is that the more he advances, the more he arrives at a certain red line: that of the use of nuclear power.
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Would a missile war favor Russia, which seems better armed?
On that side, yes, for sure. For more than 1,000 days, Ukrainians have resisted this war unwaveringly. We can clearly see that the Russians are unable to bend the will of kyiv. So, even if Russia increases these launches of new generation missiles, the Ukrainians will not give up. Now, the problem is still the same: Volodymyr Zelensky's country is on the defensive and does not have the means to counter all these attacks. But there is an error in language: when we mentioned ATACMS missiles and their “long range”, this is 300 kilometers. The one that was launched on Thursday by the Russians is 3,000 km. The orders of magnitude are absolutely not comparable.
Is the use of these missiles a way to send messages for Vladimir Putin?
Certainly yes, especially for Europeans. The type of missile that was used is not intercontinental, that is to say, it cannot fall on the United States for example. On the other hand, it has sufficient reach to hit certain European cities. Especially since this missile can be nuclear capable. On Thursday it was used with conventional charges but this is a new provocation from Russia.
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Will the fighting continue on the front?
Of course. These are fierce battles which, unfortunately, recall the war of 14-18. But they will continue, particularly in Eastern Ukraine, in Donbass. Let us not forget the arrival of North Korean soldiers which clearly demonstrates, once again, that Russia is the aggressor.
What are the risks, in the short and medium term, if missile attacks increase?
The entire territory of Ukraine can be hit by these missiles or drones. This is an accentuation of the Ukrainians' pain but will not weaken their morale. We will nevertheless have to analyze whether Vladimir Putin wants to shoot at kyiv or not. One thing is certain: between now and January 20 and Trump's official arrival in power, the Ukrainians will face great difficulties because Moscow absolutely wants the victory it has been seeking for more than 1000 days.
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Personally, are you surprised by the direction the conflict is taking?
Alas, no. Vladimir Putin hates the West and is waging a hybrid war on us, of disinformation and threats. And she's not about to stop. Let us not forget that the security of Europe is at stake today in Ukraine.
