the victory of the left in committee risks not going beyond the stage of a political coup

The repeal of the reform adopted on Wednesday in the Social Affairs Committee is only one step in the long legislative journey. Due to the balance of power in the Senate, the left has very little chance of succeeding in reducing the retirement age to 62.

The left continues to argue against pension reform. She prides herself on a first victory obtained on Wednesday November 20, the first after five attempts in all groups for two years. A bill from France Insoumise which reduces the retirement age from 64 to 62 was adopted by the Assembly's Social Affairs Committee thanks to the support of the far right. The RN tabled the same text at the end of October, but the left did not vote for it to refute any collusion. In the other direction, the reinforcement of the Lepenist party does not pose a conscience problem for the New Popular Front. And the text approved on Wednesday will be debated on Thursday, November 28 in the hemicycle.

The reform adopted under the Borne government will not, however, soon be repealed. We are far, very far from it. Firstly because if the Assembly approves it, the text will then be debated in the Senate at the end of January and there is no chance that it will be adopted, notably due to the lack of rebellious senators and lepénistes. And if the left-RN alliance approves it again at second reading in the Assembly in February, the text risks being rejected by the joint committee where the “common base” which supports Michel Barnier should be in the majority.

The executive being hostile to this repeal, it should not initiate the procedure which gives the last word to the Assembly. The rebels' text also cancels the extension of the contribution period decided by the Touraine reform in 2013, when the left was in power. We are curious to see if the socialist deputies will remove this measure that the PS has always assumed, starting with the deputy François Hollande who was at the Élysée at the time.

If the process is so complex, the left is working hard to maintain pressure on the government, mobilize its base, and close its ranks. Anti-Macronism and hostility to pension reform remain the main glue of the New Popular Front. It is also a way of demonstrating once again that the Barnier government does not have a majority, that is clear. No more than the left, which needs the support of the extreme right, to form one. A few minor questions remain: the cost to public finances, the level of pensions and a few others. But as it is not said that France has a budget in the event of government censorship, all these questions can wait a bit given the happiness of pulling off a political and media coup.