Atmospheric river to bring showers to Merced area. How much rain will we get?

An atmospheric river-fueled storm is expected to flow through the Central Valley, bringing rain showers to the Merced area.

“Tis the season for atmospheric rivers!” the National Weather Service said in a post on X. “They are capable of producing strong winds, heavy precipitation, and flooding to vulnerable areas.”

In Merced, rain showers are forecast to start on Wednesday and last through at least Monday, the weather service said.

What is an atmospheric river?

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, atmospheric rivers are streams in the atmosphere that carry water vapors outside of the tropics.

They’re sometimes referred to as “rivers in the sky.”

“That’s what produces our heavy rainfall that we see during the winter months, and then, of course, produces snow in the mountains,” said Kris Mattarochia, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Hanford.

Usually, the rain produced by an atmospheric river lasts for two to three days, according to Mattarochia.

“It can produce larger amounts of rainfall because it’s raining consistently through the weekend,” he said.

A three-legged dog runs along West 11th Street near Martin Luther King Jr. Way during a heavy rain storm in Merced, Calif., Thursday, May 7, 2015.

What’s the latest weather forecast for Merced?

Monday in Merced was expected to be sunny with a high temperature near 59 degrees, according to the National Weather Service’s latest forecast.

The temperature was expected to drop to around 34 degrees overnight with patchy frost after 4 a.m.

Parts of the San Joaquin Valley could see below-freezing temperatures from Monday night to Tuesday morning, the weather service said.

Merced will have a 44% chance of light precipitation on Monday, according to the National Weather Service, resulting in about a 10th of an inch of rain.

On Tuesday, there will be areas of frost in Merced before 8 a.m.

Tuesday will be mostly cloudy, with a high near 57 and an overnight low around 46.

When will rain return?

Wednesday will have a 30% of showers after 10 a.m with a high near 65 and a low around 48.

There is a 30% chance of showers that night, mainly before 4 a.m.

On Thursday, there’s 20% chance of showers before 10 a.m

The day will be mostly sunny, with a high near 70 and an overnight low around 46.

Thursday night will be partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.

Showers are likely on Friday, mainly after 4 p.m. It will be mostly cloudy, with a high near 68.

The weather service said there is a 60% chance of precipitation.

Friday night will see showers and a low around 53. The chance of precipitation will be 80%.

Showers are also expected on Saturday, along wind gusts as high as 20 mph. The high will be near 60, and the low will be around 47.

There’s a 90% chance of precipitation during the day, the weather service said, with new precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

More showers will fall Saturday night, bringing additional rainfall between a 10th and quarter of an inch.

On Sunday, when the high will be near 60, there’s a 50% chance of precipitation.

Merced could see new rainfall between a 10th and quarter of an inch on that day, the weather service said.

How much rainfall will we get?

“This will be the heaviest rainfall and snowfall event that we’ve experienced so far this wet season,” Mattarochia said.

From Friday morning through Monday morning, “There’s a 73% chance of an inch of rain in Merced and pretty much all across Merced County,” he said. “Of course, those amounts increase heading into the Sierra Nevada.”

At higher elevations, such as Lake Thomas A. Edison, the precipitation will take the form of snow, according to Mattarochia. There is a 42% chance of six inches or snow or more at elevations of 7,000 feet and higher, he said.