Who's new?
Vladimir Putin affirmed this Tuesday that he had signed the decree formalizing his new nuclear doctrine which broadens the possibility of using atomic weapons in the event of a “massive” air assault by a non-nuclear country but supported by a nuclear power. Clear references to Ukraine and the United States. “It was necessary to adapt our foundations (of the doctrine) to the current situation,” noted Dmitri Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson. In September, Vladimir Putin, who is demanding the surrender of Ukraine, warned that if this country struck Russian territory with longer-range Western missiles, it would mean that “the NATO countries are at war with Russia “.
What has changed?
Russia said on Tuesday that Ukraine had attacked its territory overnight with American long-range missiles, a first in 1,000 days of Russian invasion. This assertion comes a few days after Washington gave kyiv the green light to strike Russian soil with these ATACMS missiles.
A red line, according to Moscow, although according to foreign media, the American green light could be limited to strikes against the Russian region of Kursk partially controlled by the Ukrainian army and where North Korean troops would be deployed. “Moscow fears that the aid provided by the West to Ukraine will increase the cost of the war for Russia, and absolutely wants to achieve its objectives as soon as possible,” the independent analyst explains to AFP. Pavel Podvig, in Geneva.
Ukraine has been demanding for many months to be able to strike “in depth” at military targets in Russian territory to disrupt the logistics of the Russian army which daily bombs its infrastructure and cities, causing the deaths of numerous civilians.
Where were we in terms of nuclear threats?
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the doctrine mainly provided for the use of the ultimate weapon if the existence of Russia is threatened or in the event of “an attack on our sovereignty and our independence”, the president recalled. Russian on March 13, 2024. “Why should we use means of mass destruction? There has never been such a necessity,” he even said.
From now on, the message is harsher, while being quite implicit: “When Russia manipulates the concept of nuclear power, it has different objectives,” explains geopolitical analyst Ulrich Bounat to Le Parisien. Inside the country, that of reminding the people that Russia is a great atomic power. But it is also a projection of power abroad, reminding Westerners that they must be careful.”
Where is deterrence also moving?
In June 2023, Vladimir Putin announced the deployment in Belarus of “tactical nuclear weapons”, the result of an agreement announced in March with President Alexander Lukashenko, who lent his country's territory to Russia to attack Ukraine. And this while Belarus is a country bordering Poland, a member of NATO…
According to the Russian president, this is an element of deterrence for “those who think of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia”. It must be said that these weapons, less powerful than intercontinental ballistic missiles, can also destroy entire cities.
What is the capacity of Russian nuclear warheads?
With 136 new operational warheads, Russia had, in 2022, the largest arsenal on the planet (5,889 operational warheads), according to the Nuclear Weapons Ban Monitor published on March 29, 2023 by the Norwegian NGO Norsk Folkehjelp. “A trend that started in 2017,” commented a person responsible for the report. For comparison, the United States would have 5,244 while France would have nearly 290.
More modern means according to Putin: “Triads (the vectors for launching atomic weapons, Editor's note), only the Americans and we really have them. And there, we are much further advanced,” he said, on March 13, 2024, in Russian, in an interview on national television.
Especially since the war has led to an erosion of the means of regulation and supervision between Moscow and Washington, with in particular the suspension of Russian participation in the New Start treaty, on February 21, 2023. Signed in 2010, it was the last major agreement of reduction and limitation of the number of armaments existing between the former rivals of the Cold War, which is now accused of an arms race.
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