Will justice put a stop to Marine Le Pen's presidential ambitions? The question arises as the prosecution requested, on Wednesday, five years in prison, including two years in prison, and five years of ineligibility against the president of the RN. The requested sentence could above all prevent him from launching the race for the Elysée, the prosecutor, Nicolas Barret, having asked at the hearing that it be accompanied by provisional execution.
“It is a tool desired by the legislator that the magistrate uses in certain situations. In civil matters this is now the principle. As execution times are sometimes long, provisional execution can be pronounced in a certain number of situations,” explains 20 Minutes Kim Reuflet, president of the Magistrates’ Union.
Avoid “delaying its implementation”
In criminal matters, “the magistrate can pronounce it in first instance when he considers that the sanction or decision rendered must be applied immediately because it must not be deferred by a possible appeal which could delay its execution for several years”, continues the trade unionist, adding that “sometimes it is legal, that is to say that it is not the magistrate who decides whether or not to pronounce it, it is automatic”.
It is not uncommon, in political-financial cases, for judges to request the provisional execution of a sentence handed down. This was particularly the case for Jean-Noël Guérini who was sentenced in May 2021, by the Marseille criminal court, to three years in prison including 18 months suspended, five years of ineligibility and a fine of 3,000 euros, for rigging of public markets. A decision confirmed by the court of appeal in March 2022, indicated Provence. On the other hand, the constitutional council recalled, in 2021, that the southern elected official could continue to sit in the Senate as long as he was not definitively condemned by the courts, the alleged facts being subsequent to his election.
Two possibilities
For the same reason, Marine Le Pen should remain a deputy if the criminal court decides to sentence her and implement the sentence of ineligibility provisionally. On the other hand, the leader of the far-right party would not be able to run again in local elections – such as early legislative elections – or national elections before a possible appeal trial, which could be organized in several months.
Another possibility: the court sentences Marine Le Pen but decides not to follow the prosecution's requisitions by not pronouncing the provisional execution of the sentence. If the northern MP appeals, then her sentence will be suspended until the new trial and she could campaign while waiting for this new legal meeting.
If the court of appeal confirmed the decision handed down at first instance, the elected official could then appeal to the cassation. But in this case, the execution of the court decision would not be suspended.
Bardella, the RN’s “plan B”
If ultimately confirmed, would this ineligibility sentence mark the end of Marine Le Pen's political career? “Does she really want to continue beyond 2027? The question arose even before the start of the procedure. We had the impression that she wanted to go there for the last time,” remarks Jean-Yves Camus, political scientist and specialist on the far right, director of the Observatory of Political Radicalities.
He adds that “Jordan Bardella is not concerned by the procedure, the RN has a plan B”. “We can consider that by 2027, he has time to make his mark and that incidentally, he speaks to CSPs to whom she speaks little or more.” And Jean-Yves Camus asks: “What is best for the RN? Marine Le Pen who positions herself, in theory, beyond the right and the left? Or Jordan Bardella whose book sells the union of the rights? “.
The main interested party, who invested a lot of her time in a trial that she knows will be decisive for her, appeared relatively calm despite the requisitions, however denouncing the “desire of the prosecution to deprive the French of the ability to vote for those whom they wish.” Marine Le Pen also knows that the trial is far from over: the hearings will resume on Monday November 18, with the defense pleadings scheduled until Wednesday November 27, for a court decision expected in early 2025. This gives her some hope .
