“The provisional execution” of the ineligibility sentence required by the Paris court prosecutor's office against Marine Le Pen this Wednesday, November 13 could prevent the RN deputy from running in the presidential election in 2027. But the decision should not be known for several months.
Could Marine Le Pen be a candidate in the 2027 presidential election? The question arises this Thursday, November 14, the day after the prosecution's requisitions in the trial of the parliamentary assistants of the National Rally. Prosecutors demanded a sentence of ineligibility against the far-right MP, three times a candidate for the supreme office and accused of having embezzled funds from the European Parliament for the benefit of her party.
The prosecution considers that “provisional execution” of this five-year ineligibility sentence is necessary.
If the court follows the prosecution's requisitions, Marine Le Pen will not escape and will not be able to run in the presidential election in 2027, even if she appeals the judgment. This scenario provokes the extreme right, which denounces an “attack on democracy”.
No decision for several months
From Jordan Bardella to Jean-Philippe Tanguy, many RN officials began to defend their leader on Wednesday evening. But the fate of Marine Le Pen and the other accused is not yet known.
After the prosecution's submissions this Wednesday, the trial will resume on Monday, November 18, with defense pleadings scheduled until Wednesday, November 27. And the court will not make its decision for several months.
Since the start of the trial at the end of September, Marine Le Pen has proclaimed her “innocence”, that of her party and her co-defendants. “No” system, but a lot of “lies”, “fictions” and “misunderstandings”, she swore at the bar, also saying her “feeling” that the court’s opinion “was already made”.
After the announcement of the requisitions this Wednesday, the finalist in the last presidential election denounced the “desire of the prosecution to deprive the French of the ability to vote for those they want”.
“We are here in a judicial forum and the law applies to everyone,” recalled the prosecutor during the requisitions, in front of a former presidential candidate seated in the first row of the defendants.
A suspensive appeal… or not
In the event that Marine Le Pen were to be sentenced to a sentence of ineligibility at the end of this trial, she will undoubtedly appeal the magistrates' decision. At this stage, two scenarios, with very distinct consequences, are possible.
If the court decides to follow the prosecution's requisitions by condemning Marine Le Pen to a sentence of ineligibility accompanied by provisional execution, then she will not be able to be a candidate in any local or national election during the time of her sentence.
Marine Le Pen should, however, remain a deputy because she is protected by her status as a parliamentarian. But only until the end of his mandate.
But in the event of a sentence of five years of ineligibility accompanied by provisional execution – as requested by the prosecution – the elected representative from Pas-de-Calais will not be able to run again in her constituency in June 2029. Or before , in the event of dissolution of the National Assembly by Emmanuel Macron or his successor.
If the court decides not to follow the prosecution's requisitions, by condemning Marine Le Pen without provisional execution, the ineligibility sentence would be suspended on appeal until a new trial. And if she is convicted in second instance, the leader of the RN deputies will probably file an appeal in cassation, also suspensive.
“If we compare the usual delays of justice to Marine Le Pen's political agenda, we can imagine that the decision of the current trial would be rendered within three months, that an appeal trial would be held a year later, with three months again before the rendering of a decision on appeal – i.e. approximately June 2026”, wrote Agence France Presse this Wednesday.
The cassation appeal could take several months… and potentially several years. It is therefore entirely possible that there will be no final decision on this matter before the 2027 presidential election. And if Marine Le Pen were to be elected President of the Republic, the procedure would be suspended for the duration of her mandate.
