The three-ball has become arguably the staple of scoring in the NBA — so we figured we’d take some shots from way downtown, too. Here, fantasy basketball analyst Dan Titus will break down three things fantasy managers need to know each week. Or, he’ll break down multiple three-point pieces of advice, analysis and more — it just depends on how open he is From Deep.
Today, I’m breaking down nine rookies into tiers regarding their success to date and near-term outlooks.
Tier 1: Top Rookies
Alex Sarr – PF/C, Washington Wizards
Alex Sarr, the second overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, is the top-ranked rookie in 9-cat and points leagues. He’s been a defensive dynamo, sitting fourth in the NBA in blocks per game (2.8) and is in the 97th percentile in blocks relative to his position. His shot profile is pretty ugly at the moment, making just 36% of his shot attempts while hoisting nearly five 3s per game and hitting them at a 21% clip. But he’s young, and with more minutes, film and experience, we’ll see him take better shots near the rim and in the mid-range, where he’s been a more effective scorer.
On a positive note, he’s averaging 30 fantasy points per game, his free throws look good (79%) and he’s coming off his first double-double (10 points, 11 rebounds) last Saturday. Fantasy managers should continue to hold as he’s already proving to be a valuable asset.
Carlton Carrington – PG, Washington Wizards
Yup, two Wizards have been the most impressive fantasy rookies thus far. Bub Carrington, a dynamic guard, is making waves with averages of 10.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game. Bub started five of his six games and is playing the most minutes per game of any rookie at 29.2. Over the last three contests, his minutes spiked to 34 minutes a game, resulting in better production: 12 points, six boards and seven dimes.
Like nearly every non-center rookie, Carrington’s shot profile isn’t great, but he’s making 35% of his 3-point attempts and that 93% free-throw percentage is money. I love that he has a low turnover rate, too. This kid looks like the real deal and, at 21% rostered, he needs to be added in way more points and 9-cat leagues.
Zach Edey – C Memphis Grizzlies
The towering 7-foot-4 center for the Memphis Grizzlies had a breakthrough in Monday’s win versus the Nets where he dominated, posting 25 points, 12 rebounds and four blocks in 29 minutes.
Despite starting in every game this year, landing consistent minutes has been the hangup for Edey. However, if he can stick around the 20-minute mark, he’ll continue being worth rostering for the blocks, rebounds and FG percentage in 9-cat leagues. Given the erratic nature of his playing time, I understand if you need to drop him in 10-team leagues, but he’s figuring it out and is even shooting 3s.
Honorable mention: Jaylen Wells -SF, Memphis Grizzlies
Tier 2: Opportunity rising
Zaccharie Risacher – SF, Atlanta Hawks
Many analysts thought Risacher wouldn’t contribute much this season, but with injuries piling up for the Hawks, they have no choice but to give their No. 1 overall pick meaningful minutes. And he’s delivering. Risacher put his class and fantasy managers on notice Wednesday after destroying the Knicks for 33 points (11-18 FG, 6-10 3PT), seven boards, three assists and five stocks.
The 6-foot-9 forward has played at least 30 minutes in his last three contests, so until De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanović and crew are ready to return, Risacher should be rostered given what we’ve seen from his 3-point ability and promising defensive marks of late. As he builds his game, he could become a vital role player, akin to Michael Porter Jr. or Kelly Oubre, with patience and growth.
Kyshawn George – SF, Washington Wizards
I know, I know, another Wizard.
Kyshawn George, a Swiss swingman from the U, is playing the second-most minutes of any rookie and is averaging over 22 fantasy points per game — the fourth-highest behind Sarr, Carrington and Risacher. Given his abysmal shooting splits, he’s a preferred option for points leagues, but remember George benefits from Kyle Kuzma’s absence.
George won’t be worth stashing when he returns from his groin injury. But there’s always the possibility of Kuz getting traded, which would restore George’s value.
Yves Missi – C, New Orleans Pelicans
Yves Missi made my pickups list this week, but unfortunately, he hasn’t popped off as intended. At least the rookie continues to outplay Daniel Theis, which should bode well for his long-term outlook. Missi excels at finishing plays near the rim and swatting shots. The rebounds are still middling, around six per contest, so Missi needs to do more for fantasy managers outside of blocks. That said, the Pelicans are falling apart health-wise, so Missi could eventually push for more than 20 minutes a night, translating to more production.
Honorable mention: Donovan Clingan – C, Portland Trail Blazers
Tier 3: Talented but opportunity lacks
Reed Sheppard – SG, Houston Rockets
Sheppard is buried on the Rockets bench because their roster is too deep. Sheppard is averaging just 10 minutes per game — nowhere near fantasy relevancy. Kevin O’Connor noted (and I agree) that Houston can afford to bake in more minutes for Sheppard to alleviate the demand on Fred VanVleet, who plays 36 minutes a night (top-20 in the league). Rockets HC Ime Udoka obviously cares about winning and not our fantasy wishes, but in his limited experience, Sheppard’s shown to be an efficient two-way player.
Maybe Udoka heard KOC because Sheppard played 20 minutes in a blowout on Wednesday.
Matas Buzelis – SF/PF, Chicago Bulls
Like Sheppard, Buzelis faces a log jam preventing him from seeing meaningful minutes. I have more faith in him carving out a 20-minute-per-night role than Sheppard, given the underwhelming play of Patrick Williams and the Bulls potentially selling off some veterans by the deadline. Buzelis is a wait-and-see type of player, but he looked good in Wednesday night’s loss to the Mavs, scoring 13 points with nine rebounds and three stocks in 23 minutes.
Stephon Castle – PG, San Antonio Spurs
The future core of Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell and Stephon Castle is very appealing. Still, I don’t expect fantasy managers to see this group come together for at least another year or two. Castle is behind Chris Paul and while Paul’s age and durability is certainly a question mark, he’s healthy and seemingly thriving right now, leaving Castle in a backup role.
It’s encouraging that Castle plays 20 minutes a night, but the production has yet to be there. Putting up 30/14/59 shooting splits with six points, two assists and 1.3 stocks won’t cut it for points or 9-category leagues, so fantasy managers have to leave him on waivers, barring an injury to CP3.
Honorable mention: Ryan Dunn – SF, Phoenix Suns
