A Russian vehicle burns in Kursk.
Black Swan drone group capture
Russian marines and paratroopers supported by North Korean reinforcements are hurling themselves at Ukrainian positions in western Russia’s Kursk Oblast—determined, it seems, to force the Ukrainians out of Kursk before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated in January.
Elements of three powerful Ukrainian brigades are holding the line along the left flank of the 250-square-mile Ukrainian salient in Kursk, but they’re outnumbered and outgunned by the Russians and their foreign allies. The Kremlin is apparently willing to accept enormous casualties recapturing Kursk from the Ukrainian troops that invaded the oblast in August.
“Very cruel fights are taking part in [the] Kursk area,” Ukrainian drone operator War Researcher reported.
Popping smoke to obscure their movements, Russian paratroopers from the 51st Airborne Regiment and marines from the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade attacked Ukrainian lines head-on on Monday. Kriegsforscher counted 18 Russian BMP, BMD and MT-LB infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers laden with infantry as well as five T-72, T-80 and T-90 tanks, all organized into three groups.
Ukrainian drones and tanks met the assault. The fighting was chaotic and bloody and, in the end, the Russians left behind 15 IFVs and APCs and three tanks—the terrible price of their frontal assault. “We are very lucky that they do a lot of banzai attacks,” Kriegsforscher noted.
The fighting is close and confusing. According to Kriegsforscher, two Ukrainian tank crews—possibly from the newly reorganized 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade—rolled out to meet the Russians and crossed paths with, but failed to notice, four Russian BMDs or BMPs full of infantry.
The Ukrainian tankers didn’t spot the Russian vehicles until the vehicles disgorged 15 paratroopers. That’s when the tanks opened fire, destroying one BMD.
It’s not unusual for entire Russian squads to get wiped out in a single blast. During an assault on Saturday, 15 Russians dismounted from one or more 51st Airborne Regiment vehicles. Kriegsforscher claimed their drone unit killed or wounded every single Russian, contributing to what may have been record Russian losses in recent days.
Ukrainians are dying, too. The Russians reportedly captured and executed six Ukrainian troops along the front line in Kursk recently, extending a series of brutal killings of prisoners largely perpetrated by the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade.
With the front line in eastern Ukraine dangerously buckling under relentless Russians attack, Ukraine is struggling to find spare troops to reinforce Kursk. Russia, on the other hand, can count on thousands of North Koreans to bolster front-line units in the oblast. A regiment from Russia’s elite 76th Airborne Division may also be on its way to Kursk, if Kriegsforscher’s intelligence is accurate.
The Kremlin’s objective is the town of Sudzha at the center of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk. “The military-political leadership of the Russian Federation has decided to regain control over Sudzha in Kursk Oblast before the inauguration of the next U.S. president,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies explained.
President-elect Trump has pledged to end the war in Ukraine. His main (so far unenforceable) proposal is to freeze the front line wherever it is. If the armistice were today, that would mean handing Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin 45,000 square miles of Ukraine—and handing Ukraine 250 square miles of Kursk.
Putin clearly aims to retake Kursk before a possible ceasefire, thus erasing potential Ukrainian control over any part of Russia. There’s an urgency to the Russian assaults that belies this political tumult. Eschewing clever tactics, Russian troops are attacking head-on, dying in droves—and positioning Russia for one of two contingencies: a favorable armistice, or another year of costly fighting.
