The 2024 ATP Finals, hosted once again in the splendid setting of Turin, arrived amid very high expectations, but this year's tournament seems lacking in two fundamental aspects: the general quality and the unpredictability that in past years made this event truly unmissable. Novak Djokovic's absence is felt, not only for his technical value, but also for the aura of challenge and rivalry that is missing. This year's edition, in fact, appears dominated by some names without any real antagonists, reducing the suspense and pathos that have made this tournament great in the past. Between opponents who struggle to offer up to par performances and a general scenario of inconstancy, this year's tournament risks seeming more like a showcase of failed promises than a real challenge between giants.
The player to beat and the favorite to win the event is undoubtedly the home player Jannik Sinner. Last year the South Tyrolean made millions of Italians dream by having an extraordinary tournament, beating Djokovic in the groups with one of the most exciting matches of the year, only to surrender in the final to a monstrous performance from the Serbian himself. After the precautionary forfeit in Bercy the objective appears well defined: win the Finals and above all win for the first time in Italy. Taking into account Jannik's consistency this year we strongly side with him as the winner of this edition of the Nitto ATP finals. I believe the real danger could be Alexander Zverev, a German in excellent form with his recent victory in the Master 1000 in Paris, and a two-time winner in the 2018 and 2021 editions, the latter in Turin. Carlos Alcaraz, after a crackling start with the Roland Garros and Wimbledoon double, has been a bit disappointing in this second part of the season, with performances that are not exactly convincing: alternating flashes of being a 'Number 1' with dark moments, such as the two defeats suffered in the Masters of Cincinnati and Paris by Monfils and Humbert, or the 3-0 taken clearly at the US OPEN by the Dutch Botic Van de Zandschulp.
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After the 3 favorites, personally I see a real abyss. Medvedev had one of his most disastrous years, despite a good start to the season the Russian ran into a series of defeats against opponents who were manageable on paper, and was never really able to worry either Sinner or Alcaraz. De Minaur did not appear in optimal condition after returning from the injury suffered at the US OPEN.
This year Ruud has undergone a complete involution, expressing Top 100 tennis. As for Rublev, except for the Master 1000 in Madrid and a 250 in Hong Kong, he was the most inconsistent player. The only one in my opinion who deserved this stage was the American Taylor Fritz, who in recent years has been consistent in his results, obtaining his first Slam Final last September.
A look at the past
If we go back to the period around 2015-2016, the ATP Finals were synonymous with pure spectacle and no-holds-barred fighting. Players like Federer, Nadal and Djokovic battled in matches of the highest level and with often uncertain results. In those days, despite the dominant presence of the Big Three, there was always a real possibility that an outsider would emerge, like a Murray, a Del Potro or a Wawrinka. Furthermore, the historical rivalries made each match more than a simple challenge: it was an added chapter in competitive and personal stories that had been built over the years, such as the endless duels between Federer and Nadal or the endurance matches between Djokovic and Murray. Each match was so full of meaning and anticipation that it was memorable.
This year, the absence of Nole has taken away a cornerstone of the tournament and, with him, one of the biggest protagonists of the competition. A bit of magic is missing… despite the ticket price having tripled compared to the last edition. The lack of real rivals of the same level makes the outcome of the tournament appear almost already written: the favorites do not face major obstacles and the overall level of the matches does not seem to align with the most exciting editions of the past.
