In brief: This post offers a look back at our very warm fall, and asks whether this warmer pattern is likely to carry over into the winter. Spoiler: the answer is most likely yes. However that doesn’t entirely preclude one or two sharp cold snaps this winter. At the end of the post, be sure and check out some winterization tips for your home from our partner, Reliant.
So far this fall in Houston has not felt very fall-like, especially the daytime temperatures. I did a little bit of digging this morning, and found that in all of its records dating back more than 120 years, Houston has never had a fall this warm, at least through early November. In this case, I’m defining fall in the meteorological sense, the months of September, October, and November.
This year, the average high temperature from September 1 to November 7 has been 90.7 degrees. In case you were wondering, no, the average high temperature for this period has never been above 90 degrees before in Houston. The graphic below, for simplicity’s sake, only shows the average high in Houston since 1970, when the city’s official temperature station moved to Bush Intercontinental Airport. But the bottom line is that, in our recorded history, Houston has never been this hot during the fall. And yes, this is the type of pattern we would expect in a warming world.
The question then, is this: If fall has been so warm, can we have any expectation of a meaningful winter? Will it snow? Will it freeze? Here, then, is our winter outlook for the period of December, January, and February.
Winter outlook
We’ll start with La Niña, since forecasters are fairly confident that at least a modest cooling of the Pacific equatorial waters will set in during the coming months. The threshold for La Niña is -0.5 degrees C, and this is expected to persist during the winter months.
When we see La Niña developing during the winter months for the northern hemisphere, that tends to have fairly predictable effects for the United States. In Texas that means warmer-than-normal temperatures and drier weather. Essentially, we can expect more of the fairly shallow fronts that Houston has experienced so far this fall, with only glancing blows of cooler air.
In terms of precipitation, this generally calmer pattern should also lead to lower-than-normal rainfall. That’s not ideal, since parts of our area are still in a moderate drought. However, our rains over the last week, and additional showers this weekend, leave us in a lot better posture than we were before. The bottom line is that we can generally expect a mild and dry winter.
However—and there’s always a but in meteorology, it seems—there is one caveat to this forecast. Because of the way this pattern sets up, it will block much of the colder Arctic and Canadian air from the lower United States for most of the winter. But that does not exclude the pattern breaking one or two times. If that happens, and it probably will at least once this winter, there will be a large pool of much colder air available to dip down into the southern United States, including Texas.
So just because we anticipate a mild winter, it does not necessary mean we won’t see a freeze, or even a hard freeze with some freezing rain or snow from an Arctic blast. Finally, since I know someone is going to ask it, no the landfall of Hurricane Beryl this summer does not necessarily mean it’s going to snow this winter. We looked into that old wives’ tale a few years ago, and found the odds of snow in a post-hurricane winter are perfectly identical to the odds of snow in any other winter. On average we snow about once every four years.
A message from Reliant
Now is a great time to prepare your home for cooler seasons and prioritize HVAC and home maintenance. Similar to summer, a few conscious choices can make a big difference in your winter electricity bill.
These simple home improvement projects can be done now before winter arrives:
- Get an annual heater tune-up. Make sure your furnace or heat pump is clean and in good working order, so that it can run as efficiently as possible.
- Seal air leaks, commonly around windows, doors, and attics. Weatherstrip exterior doors and add caulk to windows. This helps keep indoor air in and outdoor air out.
- Install an electric water heater timer. This can prevent your water heater from running when you don’t need it.
- Inspect insulation. The best way is to hire a professional to check the insulation throughout your house. If needed, add more to better regulate your home’s temperature and reduce heating costs.
- Have your chimney inspected. Plus, be sure to keep the chimney damper closed when it is not in use.
Reliant provides 24/7 support to customers via phone and online chat. Looking for more winter tips to lower your electricity bill? Visit reliant.com/wintertips.
