Max Verstappen’s stunning back-to-front win in the Sao Paulo Grand Prix has suddenly moved the Red Bull driver to the brink of his fourth successive Formula 1 world championship title with three rounds of the season to go.
Having been on the back foot for months and seen his once-mighty points lead start to dwindle amid Red Bull’s slump in form, Verstappen turned the tables on McLaren rival Lando Norris by winning his first Grand Prix since June at Interlagos as the Briton slumped from pole position to sixth.
That has set up Verstappen’s first chance to close things out next time out on F1’s second visit to the neon streets of Las Vegas, live on Sky Sports F1 at 6am on Sunday November 24.
What’s the state of play in the championship now?
After Norris had got close to the Dutchman in the championship since the season’s fourth round back in April by winning the Saturday Sprint in Sao Paulo, Verstappen’s brilliant win in the main Grand Prix on the Sunday means his advantage is now back out to a commanding 62 points.
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Take a closer look at what went wrong for Lando Norris which cost him the win at a chaotic Sao Paulo Grand Prix
How many points are left to play for?
A maximum of just 86 points are now available across the final three race weekends that remain this season as part of a triple header of Las Vegas (November 24), Qatar (December 1) and Abu Dhabi (December 8) which concludes the campaign.
That breaks down as a maximum of 26 points in each of the three grands prix plus eight from the final Sprint of the year in Qatar.
The points left after each of the final races
| Grand Prix | Date | Points left after |
| vegas | November 24 | 60 |
| Qatar | December 1 | 26 |
| Abu Dhabi | December 8 | 0 |
So can Verstappen win the title in Las Vegas?
Verstappen will clinch his fourth world title on the streets of the Las Vegas Strip Circuit if he finishes the race 60 points or more clear of Norris in the standings.
To put it most simply, Verstappen definitely takes the title in Vegas if he finishes the race ahead of Norris in any position. Were they both to fail to score, the Red Bull driver would also end the weekend as a four-time champion.
Verstappen can also clinch the crown in several scenarios even if he finishes behind Norris, provided he is not outscored by the McLaren driver by more than two points.
So Verstappen is world champion in Las Vegas…
- If he finishes ahead of Norris in any position
- If Norris is second (18 points) and he finishes third with the fastest lap (16 points)
- If Norris is third (15 points) and he finishes fourth with the fastest lap (13 points)
- If Norris is fourth without the fastest lap (12 points) and he finishes fifth (10 points)
- If Norris is fifth without the fastest lap (10 points) and he finishes sixth (8 points)
- If Norris is sixth without the fastest lap (8 points) and he finishes seventh (6 points)
- If Norris is seventh without the fastest lap (6 points) and he finishes eighth (4 points)
- If Norris is eighth without the fastest lap (4 points) and Max finishes ninth (2 points)
- If Norris is ninth without the fastest lap or lower (2 points or fewer) irrespective of he finishes
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Take a look at these new angles of Max Verstappen forcing Lando Norris off track twice during the Mexico City GP
How can Norris take it on to Qatar?
Conversely, the McLaren driver must therefore outscore Verstappen by three points or more in Las Vegas to make sure he ends the race with a reduced deficit of 59 points or fewer to keep him in contention for at least one more week.
It’s 59 because although there are still 60 points left to play for in the two rounds that follow, Verstappen’s Sao Paulo win meant he is now guaranteed to win any results countback in the event the pair finished level of points at the end of the season.
The Red Bull driver now has eight race wins to the three of Norris, who can now only reach a maximum of six.
Norris can therefore stay in the hunt for at least one further round to Qatar if:
- He wins the race (25 points)
- He finishes second (18 points) and Verstappen is third (15 points) without the fastest lap
- He finishes third (15 points) and Verstappen is fourth (12 points) without the fastest lap
- He finishes fourth with the fastest lap (13 points) and Verstappen is fifth (10 points)
- He finishes fifth with the fastest lap (11 points) and Verstappen is sixth (8 points)
- He finishes sixth with the fastest lap (9 points) and Verstappen is seventh (6 points)
- He finishes seventh with the fastest lap (7 points) and Verstappen is eighth (4 points)
- He finishes eighth with the fastest lap (5 points) and Verstappen is ninth (2 points)
- He finishes ninth with the fastest lap (3 points) and Verstappen is 11th or lower (0 points)
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Watch new angles of Verstappen and Norris’ collision and aftermath which cost them both the lead at the Austrian Grand Prix
Is anyone else still in mathematical contention?
After the stunning events of Sao Paulo, the answer is no – it’s officially and mathematically now down to Verstappen vs Norris.
Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc has slipped to as many points behind Verstappen as are still available this season – 86 – but Verstappen’s eight wins to the Monegasque’s three mean that, again, the Dutchman is already assured to win any end-of-year tiebreaker.
Third-placed Leclerc could still take second place from Norris though, with 24 points separating the pair.
Formula 1 returns after a three-week break with the Las Vegas Grand Prix on November 22-24, live on Sky Sports F1. Get Sky Sports F1 to watch every race and more live
