Why is the National Rally going through a bad patch in opposition?
For three reasons. The latest was the parliamentary niche last Thursday, where in fact the National Rally wanted to trap both the left and the right. And in the end, it was they who found themselves very isolated.
Then there is of course the trial of the parliamentary assistants of the far-right party where Marine Le Pen spends a lot of time. She also risks up to ten years of imprisonment, a fine of 1 million euros, and a ten-year ineligibility sentence. However, his supporters are reassured at the moment, because the trial has less media visibility than expected.
Finally, there is the Assembly where the budgetary debates take place, and for the first time, the RN staff thought they could weigh in, legislate. At the moment, in fact, it is far from obvious.
However, the story began well with Michel Barnier. How can we explain the change in tone of the RN towards the Prime Minister?
When Michel Barnier was appointed, Marine Le Pen praised, I quote: his “natural courtesy”, his “innate respect”. At one point, she only had to protest so that Michel Barnier redirected one of his ministers, the Minister of the Economy, Antoine Armand. The RN was delighted and what's more they had a tool, which they still have. If we do the math, they have 142 deputies with their “Ciottist” allies, which is enough to overthrow the government with a motion of censure, provided that the left submits this motion.
The RN thought it could obtain victories in the Assembly, be listened to, for example, on the freezing of retirement pensions or on state medical aid. But for the moment, they have almost nothing to claim, nothing powerful in any case. And it’s starting to rumble in the constituency. They therefore threaten censorship in an attempt to exert influence.
On top of that, the left stole their limelight during the budget debates by passing many of their proposals, although all of this will surely be erased by the government, but that's another story.
How does the RN intend to bounce back?
There are several solutions. They can, as mentioned, vote on a motion of censure at the end of the budget. But this carries a considerable risk: that of appearing responsible for institutional chaos, and this a few weeks before Christmas. At least, they would no longer be accused of being auxiliaries or understudies of the government, as some are starting to say internally.
Furthermore, there is also Jordan Bardella, who for his part will try to attract all the media attention with the release of his book, his autobiography, at the age of 29, Saturday November 9. There will be meetings, signing sessions, really a huge communications plan. A close friend told me that, ultimately, it is also a way to talk about something other than the trial of one's own party.
