“No Democrat could have beaten Donald Trump” – L’Express

Donald Trump succeeded in his incredible bet. At 78, the billionaire will make a historic return to the White House next January, four years after leaving it. At the end of a campaign of rare violence, the Republican candidate won the presidential election this Wednesday, November 6. A much narrower victory than initially predicted by the polls, after coming first in the key states of North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. “There seems to have been a hidden vote of men who were thought to be Democrats in favor of Donald Trump,” points out historian Françoise Coste, specialist in the Republican Party and author of Reagan (Perrin), a biography dedicated to the former tenant of the White House (1981-1988).

L'Express: How to explain this return of Donald Trump to the White House?

Françoise Coste: We will have to wait to have the details of the results. But the first hypothesis is that white men, black and Latino, have shifted towards Trump. The country might not be ready to elect a woman. Furthermore, the lesson is probably that Americans were traumatized by the inflation of recent years and wanted to punish the Democrats. We can add the fact that the question of immigration had more weight than that of the right to abortion. The Democrats had made the opposite bet, but they could have made a mistake.

Furthermore, the Republicans also recorded good results in the elections which took place in parallel in Congress, which proves that there is a Republican wave. Even in states won by Harris, she is three or four points behind Biden's results in 2020. In New York, which is a Democratic stronghold, she won much more closely.

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Trumpism was therefore not just a parenthesis…

Yes, this shows us that Trump is not an anomaly. And that there really is a deep movement of support for his ideas in the United States. The Democrats don't want to hear it, but there is undoubtedly a lot of fed up with immigration. It's a taboo subject, because bringing up the issue leads to accusations of racism, but it may need to be brought up on the table in the future.

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Donald Trump is also well on his way to winning the popular vote. This shows us a Democratic collapse. This time, we won't be able to say that he only won the electoral college and that the Democrats had more votes. This would truly be evidence of a pro-Trump support vote. And this would mark a real difference compared to his 2016 election.

Will the Democratic Party be able to recover from such a defeat?

There will be a big challenge among the Democrats. And the scapegoat will undoubtedly be Joe Biden, who will be accused of having waited too long to withdraw. This will probably achieve consensus within the Democratic Party, which will prefer to sacrifice Joe Biden rather than ask fundamental questions about the reasons for his defeat. They tried to warn of the danger that Donald Trump represents on subjects like immigration or democracy, but clearly, Americans do not see him as such. Furthermore, defending the right to abortion and women's rights does not seem to be a priority for the American electorate. In particular, it will be necessary to analyze the vote of white women, who perhaps voted in the majority for Trump.

Could another Democratic candidate have done better than Kamala Harris?

I don't think so. It is true that she did not have much time to campaign and that Biden undoubtedly waited too long to withdraw. But in the time she has had, she has still done well since July. She managed to hold the party and run a good campaign by proposing interesting and concrete ideas on housing or health, which are real problems for Americans. So, in my opinion, no one in the Democratic Party would have done better.

Were the polls wrong again?

Yes, they were wrong. A recent poll a few days ago still seemed to give Harris the advantage in Iowa, which Trump ultimately won by a wide margin. And the polls gave such a close result that it was considered obvious that we would have to wait days to know the president, which was not the case. Even if it's not a Republican tidal wave, it's not close either. Everyone thought there would be hidden Republican women's votes for Harris. But it actually appears that there was a hidden vote of men thought to be Democrats in favor of Donald Trump. Minority support for Democrats appears to have eroded, and polls have failed to see this because it doesn't fit the usual patterns.

How to explain it?

In 2016, when Hillary Clinton lost, there was a sort of collective blindness to the reasons for her defeat. It was highlighted that she had not campaigned sufficiently in the Rust Beltor that she had called Republicans “deplorable”. But we have never mentioned the hypothesis of a form of misogyny which runs through American society. The fact that the population does not anticipate having a woman president. This was swept under the rug. But clearly, the issue must be put on the table. Barack Obama had begun to see this subject coming by calling not to neglect the vote of African-American men. And maybe he was right.

How does the situation look for Democrats in both houses of Congress?

In the Senate, it's over for the Democrats who are losing their majority. The best they could hope for was not to lose any seats, but they have already lost two. On the other hand, in the House of Representatives, they could still save the furniture. However, even if the Democrats won a majority in the House of Representatives, it would be down to the wire. With the majority in the Senate, it will be comfortable to govern, he will have his hands relatively free. The Senate is also very important for nominations to the Supreme Court.