One of the quirks of the Champions League’s new format is the opportunity to get excited about a match-up between teams currently 23rd and 28th in the table.
PSG and Atletico have no room for error when they meet at the Parc des Princes. The Parisians, handed the toughest fixture list in the tournament, per Opta, have got a win, a draw and a loss from their first three games in contrast to a Ligue 1 record of eight wins and two draws from 10 matches.
Having been handed a healthy 27 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight pre-tournament, the 2-0 defeat at Arsenal and 1-1 with visitors PSV Eindhoven have seen that drop to just 11 per cent.
The French champions face a very real possibility of league-phase elimination (18 per cent) heading into this match, given they still have to play Bayern Munich (away) and Manchester City. This feels like a pivotal night for Luis Enrique’s side.
For a second year running, Atletico look defensively vulnerable in Europe. They have conceded eight goals in their three matches, including a 4-0 hammering at Benfica, despite having let in just seven in 12 La Liga games.
The 3-1 defeat to Lille last time out has left them teetering a little, but they still have a 64 per cent chance of making the play-off round that will decide eight of the last 16 places thanks to some favourable fixtures.
GO FURTHER
Champions League projections: Analysing the key fixtures coming up in matchweek four
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