Analysis
“The mayoral election does not appear to be close, but at least one of the seats on city council may be a nail-biter,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College. “Joe Cobb’s lead looks to be insurmountable. While McGuire and Nash hold strong leads for the first two council seats, four candidates are within striking distance of claiming the third seat. The Democratic ticket is strong, as expected in the heavily Democrat city, but a Republican or independent might win that third seat.”
“While Benjamin Woods is being aided by his party affiliation, Evelyn Powers is using her name recognition to overcome both party and ballot position,” Wilson said. “Perhaps the biggest surprise is that almost half of the likely voters have already cast their ballot.”
This marks IPOR’s first poll focusing on local elections in Roanoke City. For over 30 years, the institute has conducted statewide surveys on politics, consumer sentiment and other issues of importance in Virginia.
The Roanoke City Council poll was a partnership of Roanoke College and The Roanoke Rambler, which together co-sponsored the project.
“This was a welcome opportunity to expand our community partnerships and provide an important public service,” said Dr. David Taylor, director of IPOR and associate vice president for academic operations at Roanoke College. “Both IPOR and the college as a whole are committed to collaborating with learners, organizations and governments across the Roanoke Valley to serve our community’s needs. We are excited to partner with The Roanoke Rambler on this close look at the Roanoke City Council.”
The Roanoke Rambler, a hyper-local, online news site covering Roanoke City, approached IPOR about conducting a local poll in the lead-up to the City Council elections. Founder and editor Henri Gendreau said it was a valuable opportunity to gain insight into the electorate’s mood on pressing civic issues. Few communities the size of Roanoke have access to public polling data on local matters.
“Roanoke has been galvanized by a three-way mayor’s race with well-known candidates,” Henri Gendreau, publisher of The Roanoke Rambler, said. “The poll shows that the Democratic nominee appears to retain a significant share of the city’s Democratic-voting electorate, which was 61% in the 2020 presidential election.”
“Though Roanoke City Council has said it plans to hire a new city manager this year, Roanoke voters overwhelmingly think the City Council elected next week should make that decision, the poll shows,” Gendreau said. “Among several other local issues asked of Roanoke voters, that viewpoint garnered the most consensus.”
