The US election: it is all about Elon Musk! Or so it might seem. The Tesla boss has thrown money and airtime at Donald Trump. A Republican win could put Musk in government, while a win for Democrat Kamala Harris could — he has joked — put him in prison. More likely, the contest will change his fortunes in more prosaic ways.
Musk’s sprawling business empire makes the election outcome very much in his interest — but it is not clear he loses either way. Take Tesla, which sells half of all electric cars in the US. Democrats like clean transport. But if a triumphant Trump scraps some clean-car subsidies, Tesla’s lead over less-advanced rivals such as General Motors looks more secure. Whoever wins, Americans will keep buying electric vehicles. In any case, Tesla’s $785bn market valuation hangs more on robotaxis and humanoid robots.
Seen from space, Musk has more to gain from a Republican win. He sees a trip to Mars — an important goal for his rocket maker SpaceX — as unlikely under the Democrats. But be America red, blue or purple, Nasa and SpaceX are tied at the hip. The US space agency has notched up nearly $10bn of obligations to SpaceX since 2019, according to federal records. A Harris administration might not love that but will have to live with it.
What about political, rather than financial, capital? Trump has dangled a job for Musk heading a so-called Department of Government Efficiency. That may not be such a plum role. Musk would probably have to distance himself from Tesla and SpaceX. Without him at the wheel, Tesla — whose valuation far exceeds what its automotive operations justify — becomes less valuable.
Politicians, unlike freewheeling executives, also have the chore of dealing with Congress. A finely balanced legislature is unlikely to wave through drastic moves in any direction, whether on subsidies, tax, space or anything else. Any hyperactive billionaire could swiftly tire of being unable to get much done. Remember Trump’s advisory council of chief executives, formed in late 2016 and helmed by Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman? Musk was a member too. It lasted six months.
Musk has already won from this election in one sense: by grabbing attention. Tesla’s market value has increased by $300bn since its April lows. Interest in its boss among Google users has doubled since he tweeted support for Trump in July.
Expect this election cycle to create more car sales for Tesla, and more ad sales for Musk’s social network and personal megaphone X. It is unclear which individual will move into the White House. But there is no doubt who at present occupies the nation’s brainspace.
