Mike Wendling
Reporting from Chicago
A new poll of voters in Iowa suggests that Kamala Harris will carry the state with 47% to Donald Trump’s 44%.
The survey was released by the highly regarded pollster Ann Selzer, who regularly carries out surveys for the Des Moines Register newspaper, external.
The survey questioned 808 likely voters in Iowa and Harris’s lead, driven by women and independent voters, is still within the margin of error, 3.4 percentage points.
It’s just one poll – so we should be cautious in interpreting the results.
“You’ll note that neither of the major candidates gets to 50%, so there’s still a little squishiness in what could actually happen come Tuesday,” Selzer told BBC News in an interview earlier this evening.
For context, Trump won Iowa by nearly 10 points in each of the last two elections. It’s not one of the seven key battleground states – almost nobody thought it would be very close.
Iowa is not itself a big prize – just six electoral votes –
but demographically, it resembles other states here in the US Midwest, such as Wisconsin and
Michigan.
The Iowa poll will likely be celebrated in the Harris camp, but is already being dismissed by the Trump campaign.
When asked about the Selzer poll, Trump campaign spokesman Jason Miller said that, in every election cycle, there is one “idiotic survey”. He referred journalists to an Emerson poll, external that has Trump up 10 percentage points in Iowa.
- For more on polling and the current state of the race, take a look at our poll tracker
