Final spurt in the US election campaign –
Harris is presented with surprising opportunities
In a tough election campaign, Donald Trump is becoming more and more aggressive, and Kamala Harris is suddenly ahead in an important poll.
Published today at 7:58 p.m
Will the USA soon be ruled by a woman for the first time? Kamala Harris in the final sprint of her election campaign in Michigan.
Photo: Jacquelyn Martin (AP)
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- The US election campaign culminates in the duel between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
- According to surveys, both candidates are roughly on a par.
- Trump could declare victory despite pending results.
- The swing states are crucial for the outcome of the election on November 5th.
Now the American election campaign is leading to election day. The polls will close on November 5th, and at some point we will finally know whether the country will have its first female president or another president. Millions of Americans have already cast their votes – postal voting has become popular since the pandemic (read here everything about the US electoral system). Now the interested rest vote, then the count is taken and the question that has been bothering America and the rest of the world for months is answered: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?
According to polls, both candidates are still more or less tied. Recently, the Republican Trump seemed to have a slight advantage; the initial enthusiasm over Harris’ candidacy had waned. Then over the weekend the news made the rounds that, according to a survey, the Democrat is leading in Iowa, a state that is actually dominated by Republicans. Women there in particular should prefer them, among other things because of their commitment to free choice in abortions. Otherwise, the outcome in seven other US states, the so-called swing states, is likely to be decisive.
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada are particularly hotly contested, and applicants have particularly sought support there in recent days. It’s about that small part of the electorate that only makes a decision at the last moment.
A few votes are decisive
The independent website 270towin.com has calculated what this could look like. It uses the forecasts of various experts to predict the likely election outcome in the states. It will probably involve a few tens of thousands of voters, like in 2016, when Trump won against Hillary Clinton, and in 2020, when Joe Biden defeated the incumbent Trump.
In 2000, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of George W. Bush after 36 days. In the 2020 election, the Democrat Joe Biden was declared the winner by TV channels after a good three days, the loser back then denies his defeat to this day: “I shouldn’t have gone,” said Trump on Sunday in Pennsylvania and meant his departure the White House. On another occasion, he described the storm of his supporters on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, with deaths and injuries, in which Biden’s election victory was supposed to be overturned, as a “day of love”.
Shortly before the election, he disturbs people with increasingly radical ideas: Donald Trump in Georgia.
Photo: Evan Vucci (Keystone)
A senior advisor to Donald Trump’s campaign team does not want to rule out the possibility that the former US president will claim victory, as he did in 2020, before the results were announced. Trump will declare himself the winner when “we are sure we have the necessary 270 electoral votes,” said Jason Miller on Monday when asked by reporters.
Trump fantasizes about election fraud
Trump is disturbing with increasingly radical ideas. So he said on Sunday that he wouldn’t mind if “someone shot through the fake news.” As a reminder: In July a gunman’s bullet grazed his right ear, and in September a suspected assassin was said to have positioned himself on the edge of one of his golf courses in Florida. Trump also accused the Democrats of attempted election fraud again, although there is no evidence of this. He is significantly supported by Elon Musk, the owner of the Network X (read here, how Musk spreads fake news).
Given the aggressive mood, election observers are concerned that post-election protests could turn into violence. Trump is trying to foment chaos using the same pattern as in 2020, wrote Pennsylvania’s Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro on X. “But listen to me: We will have free and fair, secure elections again – and the will of the people will be respected.” The future composition of the House of Representatives and Senate as well as regional issues will also be voted on.
Kamala Harris calls for unity in the final spurt and warns of Trump as a threat to democracy. Trump would bring a list of enemies to the Oval Office, she said, but she was working on a to-do list. She keeps her appearances short and specifically addresses groups of voters such as Generation Z, i.e. those under 30, Latinos or people with an Arab background. In a recent speech, she no longer mentioned Trump by name at all.
On Monday she toured Pennsylvania again and visited, among other places, the city of Allentown, which is inhabited by tens of thousands of Latinos. Trump and his election workers had repeatedly insulted immigrants; the Republican wants to deport immigrants without papers.
It is a historic duel between former prosecutor Kamala Harris, 60, against convicted criminal Donald Trump, 78. If the daughter of parents from India and Jamaica wins, the USA would be ruled by a woman for the first time.
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Peter Burghardt has been reporting as a correspondent from the USA since September 2022.More info
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