the essential
A few hours before the US presidential election, find out who, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, is leading the polls, in pivotal states and nationally.
Two days before the presidential election, America is holding its breath. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are engaged in a merciless battle, with the latest polls placing them neck and neck in a context where every vote counts. The pivotal states, these famous “swing states” areas like Iowa, Pennsylvania and Arizona, are focusing all the attention.
In Pennsylvania, a crucial state with its 19 electors, Trump is ahead of Harris in one poll (50% to 48%), while another places Harris in the lead with 51% to Trump's 48%. In Arizona, another pivotal state, Trump maintains the advantage with 52% of voting intentions according to Atlas Intel, a key support which could consolidate his camp.
Iowa, which had voted in majority for Trump in 2016 and 2020, created a surprise by placing Harris in the lead with 47% of voting intentions against 44% for Trump, according to a media poll Des Moines Register. This gap reflects a shift among some independent voters, particularly older women, who are leaning toward Harris.
A very slim gap at the national level
At the national level, the figures are also tight: according to estimates from the specialized site FiveThirtyEight, which compiles the main American polls, Kamala Harris currently garners 47.9% of voting intentions at the national level, compared to 46.8%. for Donald Trump. The gap is therefore very thin, not exceeding one point. The RealClearPolling site, another poll aggregator, even reduces this difference to only 0.3 points. The latest poll conducted by ABC News/Ipsos this weekend, however, shows a slight advantage for Kamala Harris, who would obtain 49% of the vote against 46% for her Republican opponent. The suspense should be total until Tuesday, election day.
