In the final stretch to the American presidential elections, Professor Herman Matthijs (VUB & Ghent University) reflects on the factors that will influence the final outcome.
Quite a few elections have already been held in 2024. But the election that has dominated the news for months is that of November 5 in the United States.
Below are ten reflections in the run-up to the most important elections of 2024.
1. It is striking that Donald Trump has regained the Republican nomination after his loss in 2020. Apparently no one is in the Grand Old Party (GOP) able to successfully fight him. His power over the party has certainly grown with the appointment of daughter-in-law Lara, wife of son Eric, as chairwoman of the party. Republican National Committee (RNC), or in European words: the party chairwoman.
2. Many strange things have also happened in the strategy of the Democrats. Initially, Joe Biden became the candidate again. But as the convention approached, many party members were no longer interested in pitting him against Donald Trump. In mid-summer he decided not to run for office again and Vice President Harris received the nomination. Biden will remain president. Have the Democrats not made a major blunder here? Because if Harris had been made president in the summer of 2024, she would have been in a better position against Trump.
3. Ultimately, this week the seven so-called ‘swing states‘ decide the electoral battle: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In 2020, six of these states voted for Democratic candidate Biden (only North Carolina did not). Judging from the latest polls, Kamala Harris would have a bigger problem here than Donald Trump.
4. And the candidates of the other parties? This concerns the Libertarian party, which could in principle be in Trump’s fishing pond, but also and especially the Greens, who can steal votes from Harris. Veteran Jill Stein is the green candidate again and is rising in the polls. Democrats think back to the year 2000, when the same Stein won just over 1 percent of the vote and had Al Gore lose to George W. Bush.
5. American electoral system to elect a new president runs through the states and more specifically the electoral votes, or the sum of the number of House Members and Senators. Kamala Harris will be the ‘Popular vote‘ win, but that has no electoral importance. What matters is that at least 270 electoral votes can be achieved. Changing this system is politically impossible. Because an American constitutional revision must be approved by at least 38 states out of 50 and they are not going to rush to give up their role in the presidential electoral system.
6. The fact that Americans can vote by mail weeks in advance is in fact not a healthy democratic system. As a result, not everyone votes at the same time and something always goes wrong with those postal votes. Just like in 2020, this count is once again in danger of becoming a procession from Echternach.
7. Many themes have been covered during this campaign, but there has been no leading theme. It is striking that neither of the two top candidates pays attention to the dilapidated state of the federal public finances. With a deficit of almost 6.3 percent of GDP and a national debt of 122 percent of GDP, the European Union should immediately be put on the budget penalty bench. Nevertheless, these federal numbers, without the states, are not a problem for Harris or Trump. It is assumed that the global leading position of the US dollar and the New York stock exchanges can finance everything
8. This American campaign has beaten all possible records regarding cost. It is certainly proven once again that in order to become American president, one must not only meet the constitutional requirements, but especially the ABBA hit ‘Money, Money, Money‘. Without equity and backers, the race to the White House is impossible
9. And the American billionaires have also gotten involved in this election battle. Musk supports Trump and Bill Gates supports Harris. The biggest surprise was the attitude of the traditionally democratic newspaper ‘The Washington Post’where owner Jeff Bezos determines that the newspaper does not endorse any of the candidates.
10. Winning the presidential election is a matter on November 5, because an elected President cannot do much with another majority in Congress. We are certainly looking forward to filling the 435 electable seats in the House of Representatives and the 34 new Senators. From this last group of Senators, 21 Democratic and 13 Republican mandates become available. In fact, both elections must be read together. Currently there is a narrow Democratic majority in the Senate and also a small Republican majority in the House. VooWie turns 47ste President of the United States?
