Jorge Martín champion on Sunday if…

After the fall of Pecco Bagnaia in the Sepang sprint, Jorge Martín will present himself at the start of the main event of the Malaysian GP on Sunday with an opportunity to win the world title, a first in his career in the premier category.

The Spaniard has a 29-point lead in the general classification, which offers him a multitude of advantageous scenarios, knowing that he still has to compete this year in a full Grand Prix (on a date and on a circuit yet to be determined) and this long race, starting at 8 a.m. French time. In total, this puts 62 points at stake.

GP points scale:

Sprint points scale:

Given the results obtained so far this season, including nine Grand Prix victories for Bagnaia compared to three for Martín, the Pramac driver must ensure he finishes the season with at least one point more than his opponent. A tie would in fact be synonymous with a coronation for Bagnaia, thanks to these successes which he achieved on Sunday and which weigh more heavily with regard to the regulations.

This also means that Martín can be assured of the title on Sunday in Malaysia, if he finishes the race with 38 points more than Bagnaia: this would indeed be enough to avoid this final tie, even if Bagnaia were to then win both races of the last Grand Prix without the Pramac driver scoring any points.

Here are the different scenarios which would tip the scales in favor of Jorge Martín and those which, on the contrary, would allow Pecco Bagnaia to fend off this match point from his opponent.

How Martín can win the MotoGP title at the Malaysian GP

In other words, Martín must score at least nine points more than Bagnaia on Sunday to be crowned at this Malaysian GP. To do this, he must finish at least among the first seven, then count on a weak result from his opponent against him.

If the Italian finishes first or second in the Malaysian GP, ​​the title will be decided at the last GP, regardless of Martín's result on Sunday. A victory for Martín with Bagnaia second would, however, bring the gap between them to 34 points in favor of the Spaniard, and a victory for Bagnaia with Martín third would leave a further 24 points gap.

What if Bagnaia wins the Malaysian GP?

If Bagnaia wins the Malaysian GP or finishes second, he will push the outcome of the championship to the last Grand Prix of the season. As a reminder, it is currently unknown where and when this will take place, the Valencia event having been canceled following deadly bad weather there.

With 29 points separating them today (465 for Martín against 436 for Bagnaia), it is impossible for the Italian driver to regain the lead of the championship on Sunday, even if he wins and the Pramac driver records a goalless score. On the other hand, Bagnaia can reduce his delay by finishing ahead of his rival, keeping in mind that there will be 37 points left to score in the last Grand Prix and that the Italian would have the advantage in the event of a final tie.

Bagnaia has only one solution: try to win or finish second, so that his destiny remains in his hands. Without going into all the possible combinations, here is what the championship gap would be on Sunday evening if Bagnaia won this Grand Prix: