C’is the question on everyone's lips: in a presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris which promises to be more uncertain than ever, on November 5, when will we know the winner? At night, like in 2016? Four days later, like in 2020? Or even the following month, as during the battle between George Bush and Al Gore, which ended up before the Supreme Court?
“It will all depend on the gap,” said Spencer Goidel, professor of political science at Auburn University. “If the polls are correct and the election is extremely close, it will take at least several days to know who won. » Or even weeks in the event of a legal standoff.
ALSO READ American presidential election: can we trust the polls this time?In 2020, we had to wait until brunch time on Saturday, four days after the election, for the AP agency, which is the reference, to project Joe Biden's victory in Pennsylvania – and therefore to the presidential election – by passing the absolute majority of the 270 electors to the electoral college. In 2016, the gap was of the same order of magnitude, of a few tens of thousands of votes in a handful of states, but the media were able to announce Trump's victory over Clinton in the middle of the night. Everything will depend on the States still remaining in the balance on the evening of November 5.
Why does counting postal votes take time?
In 2020, in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, nearly two out of three Americans had voted before D-Day. In person (around a third of « early voting ») and especially by correspondence (nearly two thirds). This year, early voting could still account for almost half of the vote – and sometimes more than 75%, as in Arizona. And because each state has its own rules, the count can be completed in a few hours or drag on for several weeks.
In around thirty states, postal voting uses two envelopes. The secret ballot is slipped into the first, which is itself inserted into a large envelope on which appear in particular the name of the voter, the date and his signature. Many, like Florida, allow preparatory work that begins several days before the count (verifying signatures, removing the ballot from the envelope, etc.) to save time. But in some, like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, it is prohibited until November 5.
The good news is that Michigan changed its law to move faster this year, which could give a clue to the race, as this trio in the northern United States almost always votes for the same candidate. The bad news is that other states controlled by Republicans have adopted measures likely to slow down the counting, notably in North Carolina. In Georgia, a Republican law wanted to impose a hand recount of the number of ballots, a measure criticized by many experts given the high rate of human errors. A judge has blocked it for the moment but the decision could still change on appeal.
To make matters worse, some states like Nevada accept envelopes received after the election, as long as they were mailed by November 5 at the latest. If the battle is decided by a few thousand votes and we have to wait for votes from abroad and the military, the uncertainty could last around ten days.
Snipers positioned to protect counting centers
Technically, media projections are not official. Four years ago, Fox News almost made a mistake by announcing Joe Biden's victory in Arizona at 11 p.m., a decision which angered Donald Trump. The channel estimated by analyzing the votes counted and those remaining that the Republican could no longer catch up. But Trump came back – with the postal vote of the same day leaning significantly less towards Biden – and the Democrat ultimately won by only 10,457 votes.
In the American powder keg after the assault on the Capitol, staff at counting centers in Maricopa County, Arizona, will this year be protected by metal detectors and snipers positioned on the roof. An explosive climate which could push the media “to be more cautious” in their projections, believes Spencer Goidel, to “protect their reputation and avoid a backlash (backlash) of opinion.” 24 years ago, several media announced Florida for Al Gore before backpedaling.
The specter of a legal battle
Even once all the ballots have been counted, the matter is not over. Pennsylvania automatically recounts if the difference is less than 0.5 points (about 30,000 votes from the 2020 turnout). In Arizona, it must be less than 0.1 point (about 3,000 votes). A process that takes between 10 and 30 days depending on the state but which rarely changes the totals by more than a few hundred votes.
At the same time, the battle is also being played out in court. Four years ago, Donald Trump filed 61 appeals to reject certain ballots or challenge procedural changes. He had lost all but one. But this year, he won't have Rudy Giuliani or Sidney Powell on his teams. “He learned from his mistakes, he has a much better prepared legal team,” Mike Davis, a lawyer close to Trump, assures ABC. With the help of the Republican Party, the former president has already filed around a hundred appeals to prepare for the post-election challenge.
ALSO READ What happens if there is a Trump-Harris tie on November 5?
To Discover
Kangaroo of the day
Answer
The escalation can go as far as the Supreme Court as in 2000, which put an end to the recount in Florida, sealing George Bush's victory on December 5 by a little more than 500 votes. In 2020, the judges refused to take up the appeal filed by Texas in favor of Donald Trump. This year, everything must be settled before December 11, the date on which each state, after having certified the vote, must confirm its list of electors. Who then vote on December 17.
End of the film? Still not. Like four years ago, Donald Trump could try to convince his Republican allies in contested states to appoint alternative electors, and hope that a Republican majority supports his efforts on January 6, 2025 when Congress meets to count the votes and certify the election. Be careful, says Spencer Goidel: it is enough for the polls to be wrong by 2 points in the swing states “for Trump or Harris to obtain a decisive victory in the electoral college”.
