In the heart of a barometer county

(Bethlehem, Pennsylvania) “I'm a Republican with a question mark,” says Efrain Santiago with a smile.

The 67-year-old with a shaved head has voted for Donald Trump in the past, but this time Kamala Harris has his support, he says. The Republican candidate's comments criticizing the military and his description of the assault on the Capitol as a “day of love” particularly annoyed this veteran born in Puerto Rico.

“I think he would have done a good job if he had managed to keep his mouth shut and just do his job,” says the vice president of the Puerto Rican Beneficial Society, a social club in Bethlehem. , in Pennsylvania, where the community goes to chat, eat, drink and dance.

The city of 76,000 is located an hour and a half drive north of Philadelphia and an hour and a half west of New York. Its development and demographics are strongly linked to Bethlehem Steel, a former steelworks partially transformed into a place for shows and meetings.

Purple constituency

The constituency in which it is located, Northampton, could set the tone in the presidential election: since 1920, its voters have given the majority of votes to the winning candidate, with three exceptions.

Less than 0.73 percentage points separated the two presidential candidates in Northampton in 2020.

Voters like Mr. Santiago, with his change of allegiance, could cause a surprise in the November 5 elections.

Crucial state

In the majority of scenarios put forward by experts, the path to the White House involves a victory in Pennsylvania, also known as the “Keystone State”. With its 19 electors, it is the one among the 7 pivotal states which has the most weight in the electoral college.

Les candidats y multiplient les rassemblements. À la télévision, à la radio, sur le bord des routes, les publicités politiques sont omniprésentes.

Dans la partie historique de Bethlehem, une immense pancarte jaune rappelle que Kamala Harris a voté pour réduire le prix des médicaments. Ailleurs dans la ville, des pancartes bleues plantées au sol témoignent d’un appui à la candidature de Donald Trump.

Vote portoricain

Quelque 20 % des habitants de Bethlehem parlent espagnol à la maison, avec une forte proportion de personnes d’origine portoricaine, particulièrement courtisées. Porto Rico étant un territoire rattaché aux États-Unis, ses résidants ne peuvent pas voter dans l’élection présidentielle, mais obtiennent ce droit dès qu’ils emménagent dans l’un des États.

Historiquement, les citoyens hispaniques en âge de voter se présentent en moins grand nombre que leurs concitoyens blancs et afro-américains aux urnes, selon les données du Bureau du recensement américain.

Une tendance que les deux principales formations politiques aimeraient renverser.

« J’ai l’impression qu’il y a plus de pression cette année, et que la pression vient plus du côté rouge [républicain] », testifies Lisa Riche, while cooking alcapurrias – a dish of fried plantains with meat – in the kitchen of the Puerto Rican Beneficial Society.

The fifty-year-old is a convinced democrat, and the issue that concerns her most is women's rights, particularly on the reproductive level. “I have a 32-year-old daughter and it’s important that she has rights and recourse,” she says.

The question of abortion remains mobilizing, on one side or the other, even if Pennsylvania already protects the voluntary termination of pregnancy up to 23 weeks of gestation.

Christian votes

“Before I vote as a Puerto Rican, I vote as a Christian,” expresses Robert Albino, who grew up in Bethlehem.

Met in a café next to a taqueriathe 37-year-old evangelical pastor describes himself as “pro-life.” For the past three years, he has been responsible for bridging the Latino and Spanish-speaking communities for a network of faith ambassadors at the Pennsylvania Family Institute, a group that advocates Christian values.

The organization has put together “an electoral toolbox” for pastors, explains Mr. Albino; churches cannot lobby directly for a candidate, but can talk about politics. By presenting the differences between the two parties on abortion or transgender people, for example, or by guiding voters through the registration process.

From the island to the continent

The challenge, according to Mr. Albino, is to transpose the island's politics to the politics of the continent: in Puerto Rico, voters tend to attach themselves to parties based on their position on independence.

Mr. Albino notes that voters are less and less convinced.

Donald Trump continues to have the support of devout Christians, despite his personal escapades – his three marriages, his past positions on abortion, the accusations against him.

“Unless Jesus runs for office, we will always have an imperfect candidate,” replies Mr. Albino, who supports the Republican.

Even though she attends mass every Sunday in a Catholic church in Bethlehem, Barbara Pizarro remains a pro-choice Democrat.

This mother of a 16-year-old girl is skeptical of the seduction campaign to convince voters of Puerto Rican origin, like her, to join a party. “We are not a scheme to win,” denounces the 45-year-old woman with dark glasses. We have our own beliefs and ideas. But hey, that’s always how it happens. »

Disillusioned supporters

The Puerto Rican community is not the only one targeted by the two parties: voters disillusioned with their usual party could also have a significant impact.

Dexter Andrew attends the same church as Mr.^me Pizarro, every Sunday. The 60-year-old African-American electrician has voted Democratic in the past. But he is leaning towards Donald Trump this year.

Taking advantage of a beautiful autumn day to have a bite to eat near the old steelworks with his family, Michael Falcaro is also thinking, two weeks before the election.

The 42-year-old teacher and firefighter, father of three, is registered as a Democrat in Coopersburg, but doesn't like the way Kamala Harris became the candidate after Joe Biden withdrew from the race.

His preference was for a third-party candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who suspended his campaign and will not be on the ballot in Pennsylvania.

The price of groceries and health are his main concerns, and he does not have the impression that the two candidates meet his expectations on these subjects.

“Right now, I'm leaning more toward the Democratic side,” the teacher said. I like it a lot [le candidat à la vice-présidence] Tim Walz. He's very genuine, really nice. »