The rebound is certainly timid. But it puts an end to two years of sharp decline. Last year, smartphone sales returned to growth, for only the second time since 2017. According to estimates from Counterpoint, they increased by 4% worldwide, driven in particular by the good performance of Chinese brands. This recovery had already started to materialize in the fourth quarter of 2023. It is mainly explained by the improvement in the economic situation, both in Western countries and in China, the world’s largest market. Another positive element: “premiumization” continues, with a further increase in the average selling price. Analysts predict that this good dynamic will continue in the coming years, without returning to historic peaks.
Historic fall – It must be said that the sector has come a long way. Between 2017 and 2020, sales fell sharply, under the impact of two major structural developments. First, the lengthening of the replacement cycle, from two to three years on average, due to the lack of innovation or leaps in performance. Then, an increase in prices, particularly at the high end, combined with a reduction in subsidies granted by operators. However, sales rebounded strongly in 2021, during the Covid period. Before falling sharply again, weighed down by soaring inflation and the slowdown in Chinese growth. In 2022, they saw a plunge of almost 12%. Never seen before. The following year, they fell to their lowest level since 2013.
No AI effect – The recovery in sales was expected, due to the replacement of smartphones purchased in 2021 and the normalization of stock levels at resellers. The arrival of models equipped with generative artificial intelligence functionalities, like the latest Galaxy S from Samsung and the latest iPhone from Apple, however, has only had a limited effect on sales. “While AI remains a major priority for many manufacturers, it has not yet created the replacement super-cycle that everyone expected,” underlines Nabila Popal, analyst at the IDC firm. The fault is the absence of functionality perceived as truly essential to justify changing smartphones in advance. This trend is also seen in the computer market.
Apple is losing ground – As a symbol, Apple suffered a decline in its market share, while its sales fell by 2% last year, according to Counterpoint estimates. Still handicapped by the resurgence of Huawei in China, the Cupertino giant has also failed to generate enthusiasm among its customers for its new AI services – the deployment of which, spread over several months, does not concern the moment only a few countries. And star analyst Ming-Chi Kuo doesn’t anticipate a radical change this year, counting on stagnation or very weak growth for the iPhone. Neck to neck, Samsung retains first place in the market. Behind, several Chinese brands are posting significant gains. This is the case for Huawei, but also for Xiaomi and Honor, which are continuing their move upmarket.
To go further:
– How Google is gaining ground in the smartphone market
– Transsion, new (unknown) smartphone giant
Related News :