“A year ago we warned of the unprecedented scale of this crisis… Unfortunately, we are not mistaken.” It is with these words that Cyril Messika opened the annual conference of the real estate and housing observatory which he chairs. All the professionals involved in the act of building in the Alpes-Maritimes, from developers to construction companies, including real estate agents and notaries, recently met to draw up a bleak assessment of their activity. .
Despite some signs of recovery in recent months, the real estate market remains marked by a “deep and transformative” crisis. A double crisis in reality, as underlined by the president of the chamber of notaries, Me Hervé Accorsi, both cyclical and structural. The first shook the construction sector in 2023, thereby aggravating the endemic housing shortage in this department.
A historically low number of permits
If the curve in the number of homes for sale has recovered slightly in recent months, this is not enough to erase the crisis of 2023. That year, the production of new housing literally collapsed in the department. The number of new goods delivered (2,562) was barely higher than that of 2020 (2,402), the Covid year “marked by the shutdown of construction sites”as recalled by the vice-president of the promoters’ federation, Marc Raspor.
For 2024, professionals are counting on 3,106 new sales. Compared to 5,613 in 2018. That is to say a contraction of almost 45% of the construction market which is hitting construction companies hard. This key sector of the economy, “big contributor to national GDP”recalls the director of the Banque des Territoires, Jean-Philippe Leyrat, is today in turmoil. Business failures are accelerating in the department. With dramatic consequences in terms of employment, deplores the vice-president of the construction federation 06, Lionel Dolciani, who sees little reason to hope for a turnaround in the economic situation.
Indeed, the number of building permits granted has fallen to historically low levels. Barely 108 planning authorizations, totaling a theoretical number of creations of 4,468 housing units, were granted in 2024 in the Alpes-Maritimes. Compared to an average of 169 permits issued per year, for a total of 7,087 new housing units, during the years 2015-2019. However, the next upcoming elections are not likely to reinforce the optimism of professionals, with local elected officials tending to further slow down the allocation of permits when they are campaigning.
21% fewer transactions in the old one
As a result, the stock of available new housing continued to decline in 2024. With production at half-mast, potential buyers are forced to turn to existing properties. However, the old property sector was already structurally in tension in the Alpes-Maritimes, recalls Mr. Accorsi. “The real estate crisis has therefore only reinforced the housing crisis.“ As demand remains well above supply, prices have even continued to soar on the Côte d’Azur, unlike in other regions of France. The price per square meter has increased by almost 19% in the space of four years.
But at this price, home ownership has become a luxury that some can no longer afford. Leading to a drop in the number of transactions. Resales fell by 21% in 2024: 17,116 transactions were recorded. There had been more than 25,000 in 2022a record year. In reality, despite the drop in the number of compromises signed this year, the market will still have been more dynamic than before the Covid crisis (14,909 transactions were carried out in 2019). Which explains why prices are still not dropping on the Côte d’Azur.
They have simply become prohibitive for certain categories of the population. Starting with the assets, deplores Pierre Ippolito, the president of the Union for Enterprise (UPE06) who took the head of a task force accommodation. Spokesperson for the bosses, he does not hide his concern for “the attractiveness of this territory” and the “productivity” of its economic fabric which this housing crisis is helping to degrade.
