Nasrallah’s death, confirmed first by Israel and then by Hezbollah, is like a thunderbolt in the Middle East. The most important questions:
What will happen to Hezbollah now? The Shiite organization is, to a certain extent, headless due to the death of its charismatic leader, who was actually considered the most powerful man in Lebanon. Without a boss and after killing almost the entire upper management level, it is unclear who within Hezbollah could now give command, including in the event of further attacks on Israel. She will probably wait for instructions from Iran. He is the actual protective power and most important supporter of Hezbollah. How Iran will react remains to be seen. What is certain, however, is that Hezbollah is weaker and more humiliated than it has been in years following massive waves of attacks by Israel.
Will the militia name a successor? That should only be a matter of time. Hezbollah appoints its leaders in mostly secret and rather opaque procedures. But a name for the successor is already in circulation: Hashim Safi al-Din, head of the Hezbollah Executive Council, is considered the most promising candidate. He is a cousin of Nasrallah and father of the son-in-law of the powerful Iranian general Ghassem Soleimani, who was killed in a US drone strike in Iraq in 2020. Safi al-Din is said to have been prepared for a leadership role within Hezbollah since the 1990s. According to Arabic media reports, he was most recently responsible, among other things, for financial issues and daily operations within the militia.
How significant is Nasrallah’s death? Nasrallah was one of the most important figures in the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” in which Iran fights with allied militias in the region against the declared arch-enemy Israel. In some cases he was even seen as number two behind Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The editor-in-chief of the Lebanese newspaper L’Orient Le Jour, Anthony Samrani, wrote that the killing was even more significant than that of top General Soleimani in 2020 and that of Osama bin Laden, leader of the Al-Qaeda terrorist network and mastermind of the September 11 attacks .September 2001 in the USA.
“He was our bin Laden times 10. For more than 30 years he killed our civilians while helping other terrorist organizations get better at killing us,” wrote Nadav Pollak, a lecturer at Israel’s Reichman University.
To his supporters, Nasrallah had almost god-like status.
What consequences does his death have for the conflict with Israel? That remains to be seen; there are different scenarios. The now headless organization could, for example, try to respond particularly violently to this attack despite all the setbacks – also to show that it is still capable of attacks. This could happen in the form of a coordinated attack by militias in Iraq and Yemen or again from Iran itself.
If Hezbollah does not withdraw from the southern border with Israel as requested, a limited ground offensive by the Israeli army in order to keep the pressure on the militia high would not be ruled out. However, such fighting could be advantageous for Hezbollah, which has already waged a kind of guerrilla war against Israel in the south. Because Hezbollah and Hamas have been significantly weakened in the Gaza war, the Houthi militia in Yemen in particular could become more important as Tehran’s ally.
What does death mean for Lebanon? In the small country on the Mediterranean, which has been without a president and effectively without a government for two years, Nasrallah’s death is creating a power vacuum. There are currently no signs from Iran that, as Hezbollah’s most important supporter, it wants to close the gap. A new power struggle between other groups in the country, which is heavily divided along religious lines, therefore seems possible. Opponents of Hezbollah may now see a unique opportunity to permanently dismantle Hezbollah’s structures within the state and restore greater government control. But there could also be a major breakdown in security in the country, new sectarian conflicts and overall chaotic conditions. The country already experienced a bloody civil war from 1975 to 1990.
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