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- A tropical depression or storm could form from a disturbance in the western Caribbean.
- That system could also bring rain and gusty winds to the eastern Caribbean.
- It’s long-term future is uncertain closer to Central America or the Gulf of Mexico.
- NHC is also watching an area of storminess near the Texas coast.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking two= areas of possible development in the Atlantic Basin, one of which could form into a tropical depression or storm as it heads toward the Caribbean next week. Another system is bubbling near the Gulf Coast.
Festering area of storminess near Texas and Louisiana coast not likely to develop: Thunderstorm activity has been persistent in the northwestern Gulf over the last few days. The biggest threat for this area will be locally heavy rain and flash flooding, rather than tropical development. The NHC has given this area a low chance of development.
Rainfall Forecast
(Locally heavier rain totals are possible where clusters of thunderstorms stall over an area for a few hours. )
Potential for development in the Caribbean is more elevated: This system is an area of disturbed weather called a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The NHC gives this disturbance a medium chance of development as it tracks westward through the Caribbean. This potential development is more likely toward the end of the week ahead and no development is expected before the tropical wave reaches the Lesser Antilles.
If the disturbance becomes more well-defined with organized shower and thunderstorm activity, it could become a tropical depression or storm next week. That potential formation is most likely to occur in the orange-shaded area on the map below, according to the latest NHC outlook.
The next name on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season list is Francine.
(The possible areas of tropical development according to the latest National Hurricane Center outlook are shown by the polygons, color-coded by the chance of development over the next seven days. An “X” indicates the location of the current disturbances.)
Here’s where this potential Caribbean system is headed: The system will be steered westward by high pressure to its north, reaching the Lesser Antilles by Monday or Tuesday. Regardless of development, the Lesser Antilles could see heavy rain and gusty winds as the system moves through.
The strength of the Bermuda High and resulting upper-level pattern will help determine where exactly this system tracks next week.
A stronger, more expansive Bermuda High would shunt the system westward while a less expansive dome may allow the disturbance to turn more northward somewhere.
It’s far too early to know what, if any, threat this system might pose to the continental United States, but multiple models are now suggesting that development is more likely as we near the peak of hurricane season (roughly Sept. 10).
(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)
Typical for this time of year: This “Potential Francine” is developing in an area that’s very common for activity this time of year. September is hurricane season’s busiest month in the Atlantic, so we anticipate enhanced tropical development in the coming weeks.
Caitlin Kaiser graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology with both an undergraduate and graduate degree in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences before starting her career as a digital meteorologist with weather.com.
