Andrey Rublev in Jiri Lehecka
Lehecka has made a strong impression since returning from a long-term injury.
He beat Daniil Medvedev in Cincinnati earlier this month in just his second match back and now finds himself in the third round of a Grand Slam.
Holding a 2-1 winning record over Rublev on a hardcourt, the 11/4 underdog is not without a chance here either, especially with the Russian not at the top of his game right now – he was fortunate that Arthur Rinderknech ran out of gas in the last round, allowing him to win in five sets.
The problem for those considering the upset is that Lehecka was also taken the distance in tough conditions the other day and, given his long spell out, out you have to wonder if his stamina reserves are now rather depleted.
The compromise position is to back him to win the first set.
If fatigue is to be a factor it will likely be on show later in the contest and, in much cooler conditions than Wednesday, Lehecka is worth backing to make a strong start.
He’ll know he’s unlikely to win this if it goes the distance so he should be very focused from the start, using his aggression to trouble his opponent.
Elina Svitolina in Coco Gauff
I was very much against Gauff in the outright market in the lead up to this event.
Admittedly, the defending champion has eased through two rounds so far, losing only six games, but she’s played no-one of note. This is different.
Svitolina is among the seeds and she’s a former semi-finalist in New York.
Key for me is her game style, which matches up well to Gauff.
The Ukrainian has a great defence and will make Gauff play many more balls than she has done in the first two rounds.
And the problem for Gauff in recent months has been making too many unforced errors.
Svitolina will surely look to grind her opponent down, make her play, time after time, and look for the errors to come.
Of course, they may not, but recent performances by the American would suggest otherwise.
Her forehand is notriously fragile – holding it togteher was key to her susccess 12 months ago – and I feel Svitolina may have the key to breaking it down.
Posted at 1640 BST on 29/08/24
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