There are 36 matches left in this Champions League group stage and at least 36 million different scenarios in the race for qualification. Before the last two days (the 7th takes place between Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, the 8th next Wednesday in a huge multiplex), the four French teams are all still racing to see the rest of the adventures. But if Brest or Lille are already assured of seeing the play-offs and dream of even better, PSG is in a more precarious situation. We’ll try to explain all this to you (be careful, it can make your head hurt a little).
How many points do you need to qualify?
Before seeing the chances of all French clubs, several important reminders. At the end of the group stage:
- The first 8 teams in the ranking are directly qualified for the round of 16.
- The following 16 teams are qualified for a “play-off”, a sort of round of 16 where they will compete back and forth to reach the round of 16.
- Clubs ranked from 25th to 36th place are eliminated.
- In the event of a tie on points, the clubs will first be decided by goal average, then by the greatest number of goals scored.
As this is the first edition of the Champions League, we have little perspective to know the number of points necessary to ensure qualification. To help us, the company specializing in statistics launched 50,000 simulations which reached these conclusions:
- To qualify in the top 8, you need at least 14 points (28% chance), but count instead 15 (73%), 16 (98%) or 17 (100%) to be safer.
- To qualify among the play-offs and therefore finish in the top 24, we can hope with 8 points (16%), but we must count on 9 (69%) and especially from 10 (99%).
For Brest, (at least) a victory to see the 8th
7th with 13 points – travels to Shakhtar Donetsk (in Gelsenkirchen, Germany), receives Real Madrid
Huge surprise of this Champions League, Stade Brestois is in a relatively simple situation: already assured of being at least play-offs with their 13 points, the Bretons must now aim for the top 8. Playable, provided they win at least one match , either against Donetsk or against Real Madrid next week, which could mathematically guarantee them a direct place in the round of 16.
Taking into account the number of points of their direct opponents and the average goal average of Brestois (+ 4), qualification at 15 points, with two draws, seems more compromised.
To avoid having a feat to achieve on the last day against Kylian Mbappé’s Real, the Brestois therefore have a golden opportunity on Wednesday at 6:45 p.m. in Germany against the Ukrainians of Donetsk, currently 27th and condemned to win their two last matches to hope for qualification.
For Lille, two finals for the top 8
8th with 13 points – travels to Liverpool, receives Feyenoord
If you have read the Brest scenarios carefully, it is almost a copy and paste for Lille. With the same number of points but a goal average of one goal lower (+ 3), the Northerners will have a very good chance of qualifying directly for the eighth with a victory in one of their last two matches.
The only difference is in the opponents. Lille first travels to Anfield on Tuesday to play the best team in Europe at the moment, Liverpool. A team already qualified for the eighth, with 6 victories in 6 matches, and which will undoubtedly be a little in reserve in a busy season.
-Second chance next Wednesday, with the reception at Pierre-Mauroy from Feyenoord. currently 18th and almost qualified for the play-offs. Dams that Lille have already ensured, even in the event of poor performance over the last two days.
According to Opta statistics, Brest has a 31% chance of finishing in the top 8, Lille 26%.
For Monaco, a draw to ensure the essentials
16th with 10 points – receives Aston Villa, travels to Inter Milan
Anything can still happen at ASM. In the lead after their good start to the campaign, the Monegasques only need a small point from their last two matches (at home against Aston Villa this week, away against Inter Milan the next) to secure a place as a play-off.
Adi Hütter’s men can also dream of direct qualification for the round of 16 provided they win their last two matches. But they could also be eliminated in the event of a double defeat and a very bad combination of circumstances in the matches of their direct opponents.
For PSG, at least one victory to avoid disaster
25th with 7 points – receives Manchester City, goes to Stuttgart
Large leader of the French Championship, Paris is nevertheless the Ligue 1 team in the worst shape in the Champions League. 25th and first non-qualified at present, PSG must win at least one of its last two meetings to hope to qualify. With 3 additional points, he does not have the mathematical assurance of being in the 24 and would be well advised to take at least 4 to have a little margin.
In the event of a poor performance against City on Wednesday, everything could be decided in a “final”, or rather a sort of round of 32 with an obligatory victory against Stuttgart, which has the same number of points as Paris at the moment but an unfavorable goal average for the moment.
Without a victory, it is difficult to see PSG qualify with less than 10 points. Conversely, even with two victories, Paris only has an infinitesimal chance of finishing in the top 8. For Opta, the PS has a 67% chance of qualifying for the play-offs and a 33% chance of being eliminated.
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