Inflation rebounded in October in the United States, for the first time since March, to +2.6% over one year against +2.4% in September, the subject being one of the main concerns of American voters and having contributed to the election of Donald Trump.
Over one month, the price increase is 0.2%, an increase identical to that of the previous month, according to the CPI index published Wednesday by the Labor Department.
This change in inflation is in line with analysts’ expectations.
The index measuring housing prices represented “more than half of the increase over one month, the Labor Department said in its press release.
So-called core inflation, which does not take into account the more volatile prices of food and energy, remained identical in October to that of September, at 0.3% over one month and 3 .3% over one year, as expected.
The surge in prices in the United States since 2021 has played a very important role in the election of Donald Trump. Voters punished the Democratic camp of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, considered responsible for this inflation, for not having been able to bring it down more quickly.
Prices have increased by more than 20% since the arrival of Joe Biden at the White House, in a context of international inflation linked to the post-Covid economic recovery.
“Trump low prices, Kamala high prices”, displayed certain signs of the Republican candidate, planted on lawns.
Donald Trump promised Americans to solve this problem, notably through tax cuts. But also generalized increases in customs duties, which could cause a rebound in inflation.
Complicated for the Fed
Inflation, however, has fallen sharply since its peak of 9.1% in June 2022.
And the rest of the American economy is in good health, with GDP growth a little weaker than expected in the third quarter, at 2.8% at an annualized rate, which is, however, almost twice as high as in the euro zone.
The unemployment rate remains low, at 4.1%, despite very weak job creation in October, due to hurricanes and strikes, notably at Boeing.
This rebound should, however, complicate the work of the American central bank, the Fed. In a move to bring down inflation, it had raised its rates, in order to weigh on demand and, ultimately, to ease the pressure on prices.
Inflation having slowed sharply, the Fed has begun to ease its monetary policy, to, conversely, avoid slowing down American activity too much, which would risk increasing unemployment.
On Thursday, it lowered its rates for the second time in a row, by a quarter of a percentage point this time, compared to half a point the previous time. Its officials welcomed the drop in inflation and the easing of the job market.
Rates are now in the range of 4.50 to 4.75%, after having remained at their highest level for more than a year since the early 2000s, which had made access to credit difficult for American households and for businesses.
The next Fed meeting will take place on December 17 and 18, and a further cut of a quarter point is expected by market participants, according to the CME Group tool.
This article was automatically published. Sources: ats / awp / afp
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