A little less than two weeks ago, David Alonso wrapped up the Moto3 championship in Motegi, during the Japanese GP. This time, it is Ai Ogura who has a first match point to do the same in Moto2, while the discipline will take place on the Phillip Island circuit, to compete in the seventeenth round of its season in Australia.
While he will be promoted to MotoGP within the Trackhouse Racing team next year, the No. 79 has set himself the next objective of winning the title to finish in style before taking the big leap. A target that he will have the opportunity to reach this Sunday at Phillip Island. The Japanese would thus win his first world champion title.
There are now four Grands Prix remaining in Moto2, and a total of 100 points distributed. In this way, Ogura would have to leave Australia with a lead of 75 points to be crowned champion.
Mathematically, the top six in the Championship still have a chance of being crowned. Joe Roberts and Manuel Gonzalez, however, will see this dream slip away this weekend if they finish behind the Japanese driver, the latter each being 75 units behind. It will be the same for Aron Canet if the latter concedes another three lengths to the championship leader.
Among the candidates who have a more serious chance of preventing Ogura’s coronation this weekend, we find Alonso Lopez and Sergio Garcia, the garage neighbor of the principal concerned. The two men are currently 60 and 65 lengths from the lead. Ogura must therefore distance themselves from the latter by 15 and 10 points, if he wants to leave Phillip Island with the title in his pocket.
Ai Ogura Moto2 champion in Australia if…
Looking at the favorable scenarios – assuming Roberts, Gonzalez and Canet finish behind Ogura – in the event of Ogura winning in Australia, Garcia would need to finish at least sixth, and Lopez third, to prevent the latter to lift the world crown. Note that Sergio Garcia has not recorded such a result since the Great Britain Grand Prix. Lopez, for his part, has only recorded two podiums since the start of this second part of the season. There is therefore a good chance that a victory for the leader of the ranking this weekend will put an end to the suspense.
If the Japanese crosses the checkered flag in second position, his garage neighbor will be able to settle for eleventh place to push back the deadline. For the SpeedUp driver, a sixth place would have to be achieved to stay in the race.
Finally, if Ai Ogura completes the next round of the Moto2 championship in third place, Sergio Garcia could afford to finish fifteenth, Alonso Lopez tenth. A fourth place (13 points) on the finish line would not allow Ai Ogura to sufficiently distance his closest pursuer.
Arriving in the intermediate class at the dawn of the 2021 season – after obtaining his best result during the previous season in Moto3, with a third place – the Japanese has continued to gain momentum. Second in 2022, at the end of an intense fight for the title with Augusto Fernandez, the MT Helmets Msi rider found an opportunity to take revenge this season.
If the lower class championships could find their new champion prematurely, that of MotoGP should keep all its promises until the end. As a reminder, Jorge Martin is only ten points ahead of Pecco Bagnaia before the Aussie meeting.
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