Tour of Lombardy – Do the change of route and the absence of Civiglio change anything for Pogacar?

This was the ritual during the arrivals of the Tour of Lombardy in Como, on the banks of the azure lake whose beauty was matched only by that of the orange autumn sky. Before diving into the Lombard city, the runners hit their heads against a real wall, the Civiglio (4 km at 10.1%). The most comfortable isolated themselves in front, like Thibaut Pinot against Vincenzo Nibali in 2018. Behind, the others were put to the test by severe slopes. This year, it will not be the case, the fault of a landslide which occurred last May making the road impassable. And that changes everything, or almost.

Obviously, if Civiglio was still on the program, there would be no doubt about the strategy adopted by Tadej Pogacar (UAE Emirates), but without this launching pad, what scenario could we witness? Exit the Civiglio, the organizers have still concocted a strong profile with no less than 4,800 m of positive altitude difference. Not to the taste of Romain Bardet (DSM-firmenich PostNL), who mentioned it before the departure of Gran Piemonte. “I think the journey is less interesting than in the past”he said, pouting.

Used for the first time in 2004, the Civiglio served as dessert after a hearty main course: the Mur de Sormano. Now avoided because of its descent considered too dangerous, especially since Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) got a big scare by falling into the ravine in 2020, the race is transforming. Unlike the immutable route of its Italian cousin, Milan-San Remo, the route of Il Lombardia actually changes from one year to the next, alternating between Bergamo and Como as arrival cities, to make vary the pleasures.

“This Tour of Lombardy is perhaps harder in its first part than in its second part”analyzes our consultant Nicolas Fritsch. Could we then witness attempts by daring people who would like to liven up the race early? Possible, but difficult to believe that it could change anything, as UAE has brought out the big armada and should be able to control the race quite easily. A pattern that we have often seen on the big mountain stages of the Tour de France.

This year, the long climb of Colma di Sormano (13.1 km at 6.5%) should play the role of justice of the peace and make a difference after more than 200 km traveled in the steep Lombardy hinterland from Bergamo. “We are on a climb which corresponds to climbing qualities. 13 km is very long and the climb is divided into two parts, continues our consultant. It’s difficult to tell the difference in the first part of the climb which is at 7%, but there is this final part at 9% over 1.5 km. The Emiratis will be able to squeeze out the peloton and tire everyone out, before Pogacar takes advantage of this more difficult part to isolate himself and take a little lead.”

Behind, there will be 42 km to go to reach the finish line in Como. All that will remain is the short and affordable climb of San Fermo della Battaglia (2.8 km at 6.7%), the summit of which is only 6 km from the end to make the difference. It could make it possible to decide between a small group and in the worst case, there will remain the descent, then the finishing straight line to put the watts into play which will remain in the legs of the best after more than six hours of effort.

After this forced change of route, it was envisaged that Mathieu Van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) would line up to try to add the Classic with Dead Leaves to his list of achievements, this will not be the case. On the other hand, this change rebalances the balance of power in relation to the sparkling form of the Slovenian scarecrow.

“Riders like Remco Evenepoel or Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike) are put back in the game by this change of route. “The profile of the final favors the Belgian and good luck letting go of Matteo Jorgenson who is in good shape at the end of the season”notes Nicolas Fritsch. For his part, a rider like Enric Mas (Movistar) will be “disadvantage” by this suppression of Civiglio. He was also the only one to have managed to keep Pogacar’s wheel in 2022, before losing in a close sprint duel.

In any case, all analyzes are often thrown in the trash by Tadej Pogacar. “It doesn’t matter if there is a change or not, the big favorite remains Tadej Pogacar. He can win a sprint in small groups, attack in the last bump (San Fermo della Battaglia, 2.5 km at 6.9%) “It’s him who’s making things harder for himself by wanting to attack from afar, in truth.”predicts Nicolas Fritsch.