Before going to face AS Saint-Etienne this Sunday evening, Olympique de Marseille is confident thanks to an almost perfect away record, with six victories for only one defeat. But the Marseille defense suffers regularly, pierced at home by PSG or Auxerre with three goals conceded, and feverish at Lens, Nantes or Lyon despite the victories. An impression confirmed by advanced statistics.
The numbers don't lie, and they point to OM as being in overdrive. Roberto De Zerbi's men defy the laws of expected goals. Offensively, they scored 9 more goals than expected given the situations created in matches and the defense is at the same pace. Marseille conceded 17 goals, but should have conceded almost 24 in the league. An exact differential of 6.78, record in Ligue 1. The imbalance requested by the Italian coach is one of the explanations, and the defenders are mechanically more exposed to high recoveries from opponents. On average, Marseille suffers almost 12 shots per match, while Paris Saint-Germain, Monaco and Lille are less than 10.
Balerdi, Murillo, Kondogbia: recurring errors
But there is worse. OM is the team in the championship which loses the most defensive duels. Individually, the Marseille defenders are not having a great start to the season. His boss and captain, Leonardo Balerdi, has lacked consistency since the start of the season. If he is in the top 3 in the five major European championships for tackles and interceptions, the Argentinian struggles in defensive heading and especially clearances. Often taking risks with the ball, Balerdi made two errors leading to a dangerous opponent's shot. Among the 24 players to whom this happened in Ligue 1, OM is the most represented club (tied with Lyon and Angers) since Amir Murillo and Geoffrey Kondogbia were also guilty of two dangerous errors.
Rulli, the Marseille savior
If Marseille comes out unscathed most of the time, it is thanks to the opponent's clumsiness but also to their goalkeeper Geronimo Rulli. The Argentinian, who arrived from Ajax Amsterdam last summer, first distinguished himself on penalties. He repelled the two conceded, in Brest and Lyon. A phenomenal 100% ratio which breaks Marseille's habits, since Pau Lopez, Rulli's predecessor, had only stopped 8% of the penalties suffered during his Olympian mandate (2 saves out of 22). The Marseille goalkeeper stands out in face-to-face situations and can boast a save rate of 73.8%, which places him in the top 15 in Europe. Marseille will therefore have to improve its defensive statistics to stay in contact with Paris, Monaco and Lille. The Stéphanois test this Sunday will be important, even if the Greens have only scored 11 goals since the start of the season, which makes them the second worst attack in the championship.
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