Three days after a logical defeat in Munich (0-1), Luis Enrique nevertheless affirmed at a press conference that his team should have nine points in the Champions League rather than the current four. How does the PSG coach arrive at this total? And is he completely off the mark?
9 points rather than 4, how?
After five days of the Champions League, PSG has only four points on the clock and occupies 25th place in the standings, one length behind the last qualifying place for the play-off round. But three days after another defeat in Munich (0-1), the Parisian coach felt that the balance sheet did not reflect the reality on the ground: “The ranking in the Champions League is absolutely undeserved. I think we should have at least 9 points. »
Although he later admitted that “we have the points that reflect our scores”, the Parisian coach therefore believes that his team should have five more points. It is not very difficult to find where the missing points are, in relation to the match scenario or the coach's post-match statements. After the defeats at Arsenal (0-2) and Munich (0-1), Luis Enrique admitted that the opposing team deserved to win.
In other words, the missing points are those of poor performances against PSV (1-1) and Atlético Madrid (1-2). The Dutch coach, Peter Bosz, did not even hide the fact that his team should logically have lost given the nature of the match. On Diego Simeone's side, we didn't go that far but all the statistical indicators were indeed in favor of the Parisians (shots, chances, xG, etc.).
The stats prove him right, and even more
With 9 points, PSG would today be between 13th and 15th place in the standings, a much more comfortable situation since at least ten places ahead of the current one. But this rapid calculation is even undervalued compared to the content of the matches, for the capital club as for the others. According to calculations by the Opta statistics institute, PSG should even occupy 9th place according to its Expected Goals!
Based on this statistic which allows us to measure the chances created and conceded quite well, PSG is even the team which underperforms the most in the Champions League this season and finds itself 16 places behind what the content of the matches reveals, excluding goals scored and conceded obviously. Depending on the Expected GoalsOpta has calculated Expected Points for each match, which made it possible to arrive at this new ranking in Expected Positions. And it’s an understatement to say that Paris is number 1 for inefficiency in the competition:
Based on what his team produces, Luis Enrique is therefore not totally crazy or off base. But as he himself said, “we have the points that reflect our scores” and it is only the goals that count, with three scored for six conceded.
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