As Ligue 1 completed its 12th day, the famous statistics organization Opta published a predictive ranking based on the teams' performances and their projections until the end of the season. If Paris Saint-Germain unsurprisingly dominates these forecasts with a probability of 94.2% of winning the championship, the table also reveals interesting lessons for AS Saint-Étienne and its competitors in the fight for maintenance.
A tight fight to stay in Ligue 1
In this predictive ranking, ASSE is placed 14th with a 15.7% chance of finishing in this position. Data which reflects the difficulties of the Greens this season, despite some flashes of performance, such as their recent victory against Montpellier.
With only three points ahead of Nantes, the current play-off according to the real ranking, the Stéphanois will have to remain vigilant. Especially since the predictive ranking highlights a fierce fight between several teams: Nantes (18.8%), Strasbourg (16.5%), Auxerre (16.3%) and even Le Havre (19.1%) are all in a pocket handkerchief.
The case of Montpellier, currently 18th in this projection with a 31.6% chance of remaining, is also significant. Such a probability shows that the Hérault club, despite difficulties, remains a direct competitor that the Greens will have to monitor closely.
A decisive calendar
ASSE will need to string together solid performances to improve its chances of remaining. With tricky trips, like the one to Rennes this Saturday, and demanding receptions, notably against Marseille, the Greens' schedule leaves them no respite.
Reasons for hope
If ASSE is in a delicate position, other clubs are in similar, or even more worrying, dynamics. Stade Rennais (14.8%) and Toulouse (14.2%) are not immune, despite their superior means on paper. The Stéphanois can also count on the return of certain executives, like Mickaël Nadé, to stabilize their defense.
Maintenance remains within reach, but the Greens no longer have the right to make mistakes. This predictive ranking, while far from being a certainty, should serve as a reminder: every point will count in this fierce fight to stay among the elite.
Ligue 1 prediction
Here is the predictive ranking published by Opta after 12 days of Ligue 1:
1. PSG : 94,2 %
2. AS Monaco : 50,5 %
3. LOSC: 33.1%
4. OM : 27.0%
5. OGC Nice : 22,1 %
6. OL : 20,0 %
7. RC Lens : 18,5 %
8. Stade de Reims: 15.9%
9. Stade Brestois 29: 14.6%
10. Toulouse FC : 14,2 %
11. Stade Rennais: 14.8%
12. AJ Auxerre: 16.3%
13. RC Strasbourg : 16,5 %
14. AS Saint-Étienne: 15.7%
15. Le Havre AC: 19.1%
16. FC Nantes: 18.8%
17. Angers SCO : 19,9 %
18. Montpellier HSC : 31,6 %
The percentages indicate each team's estimated chance of finishing in the corresponding place.
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