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Published on 05 Nov 2024 at 6:21 par
Abdel Maarous
AS Monaco's chances of qualifying for the next round of the Champions League
The 2024/25 Champions League introduces a new qualifying format, shaking up the usual dynamics. From now on, the teams are grouped into a single league of 36 clubs. Only the top eight advance directly to the round of 16. However, teams ranked 9th to 24th will have to go through a round-trip play-off. Below 24th place, elimination is immediate. In this race, AS Monacocurrently 4th in the rankings, is in a good position to aim for a place in the top 8.
The current situation of AS Monaco
After three matches, AS Monaco is showing a solid performance. The club counts 7 pointswith two victories and a draw:
- Victoire 2-1 against the FC Barcelona during the first day.
- Draw 2-2 against the Dinamo Zagreb outside.
- Crushing 5-1 victory facing theRed Star Belgrade.
The next match against Bologna will be crucial to maintain their position at the top of the table and strengthen their lead.
How many points are needed for qualification?
The statistics ofchoose indicate that obtaining 16 points (five wins and one draw) would practically ensure a place in the top 8. With 15 points, qualification in the top 8 remains probable, with 73% chance according to the simulations. Currently at 7 points, Monaco must therefore aim for three more victories to secure this advantageous position. A victory in Bologna would bring them considerably closer to that goal.
To ensure at least a place in the top 24 and therefore access to the play-offs, 10 points appear to be the minimum required. This means that Monaco still need to get three points from five games. This objective is realistic given their current performance. According to the simulations, with 9 pointsthe probability of reaching 24th place is 69%. Below 8 points, the chances of qualification decrease drastically.
Monaco's chances in the next match
Against Bologna, Monaco has a good chance of winning. A victory would allow them to reach 10 pointsplacing them in an excellent position to secure at least one dam. If they manage to secure all three points, they will be able to concentrate their efforts to climb into the top 8.
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