The Milwaukee Brewers will face the St. Louis Cardinals for the start of their final rivalry matchup on Monday afternoon.
It’s been a disappointing season for the Cardinals, but they have recently found some encouraging players to build around for next year. A 14-7 victory over the Yankees was highlighted by Jordan Walker’s five-hit night to end their most recent series. Walker is a budding star for the club at just 22 years old despite already having over 500 major league at-bats.
Among many concerns has been the lack of productive pitching in St. Louis. Extensive trades and free agent signings have still led to a 4.18 ERA, ranking 20th in the majors. Andre Pallante might be the most interesting figure set to start against Milwaukee. After spending much of his MLB career as a reliever, he’s been moved back into the rotation with mixed results. The other two starters, Sonny Gray and Erick Fedde, are talented pitchers, but underperformed expectations in the Cardinals’ playoff hunt.
It’s been a one-sided tale of dominance for the rivalry in 2024. The Brewers enter the series with a 7-3 record against St. Louis and look very capable of making that number even more one-sided. Although there are now some new names in the lineup, it hasn’t rapidly transformed the Cardinals’ season. They rank 20th in wRC+ over the full season and 20th in just the last 30 days. Will they prove to be a renewed threat as the Brewers vie for the best record in the National League?
Probable Pitchers
Monday, September 2 @ 1:10 pm: Freddy Peralta (3.70 ERA, 4.10 FIP) vs. Andre Pallante (3.80 ERA, 3.75 FIP)
Brewers’ ace Freddy Peralta gets a chance to kick off the month with a victory in his fourth start against St. Louis this season. His most recent showing in the rivalry was a five-inning shutout, but it came with just two strikeouts. After his dominant outing against the Giants, will he be able to show that same level of swing-and-miss against the Cardinals? His fastball usage was his highest in his most recent of those previous three outings against the Cardinals, so he simply might not be relying on his breaking balls to get outs against this team.
Andre Pallante was an unexpected success for the Cardinals rotation after spending the first half of the year in the bullpen. His 3.50 ERA since joining the staff in late May has been one of the better marks on the team. His 6.78 K/9 and 3.28 BB/9 don’t stick out as particularly impressive, but he’s done a great job of limiting runs in recent weeks. His last four starts, all against playoff contenders, have resulted in a 2.13 ERA over 25 1⁄3 innings.
Tuesday, September 3 @ 6:40 p.m: Aaron Civale (4.59 ERA, 4.73 FIP) vs. Sonny Gray (3.96 ERA, 3.37 FIP)
Civale looked great in his last start against the Giants. Across seven innings, he allowed just two hits and struck out seven. Was that a sign of progress for Civale, or simply preying on a strikeout-prone Giants lineup? This will be his first matchup against the Cardinals in 2024. Civale has now put together a solid body of work for Milwaukee with a 3.72 ERA since becoming a Brewer.
Gray’s first season with the Cardinals has been a slight disappointment compared his stellar 2023. Although he is still capable of taking over a game, the Brewers might be catching him at just the right time. Over his last four starts, Gray has allowed seven home runs in 22 innings while pitching to a 5.73 ERA. Those outings have all lasted fewer than seven innings after hitting that mark in four of his previous five starts. That might sound like an opportunity, but it’s important to still be wary of his strikeout potential. He’s struck out at least six batters in 11 of his last 12 starts.
Wednesday, September 3 @ 6:40 p.m: Colin Rea (3.70 ERA, 4.60 FIP) vs. Erick Fedde (3.43 ERA, 4.05 FIP)
Rea will be an important pitcher to follow in this start. After a brilliant season, the past two starts have dampened some of that sheen. It’s a small sample, to be sure, so it’s more of a speed bump than anything. But those two starts led to eight earned runs over 10 2⁄3 innings against non-playoff teams. Like any pitcher, Rea’s pitch-mix is a factor as he goes from start to start. His last outing was his highest-percentage usage of his slider all season.
Fedde was one of the key deadline moves for St. Louis after thriving with the White Sox to rejuvenate his major league career. His stint with the Cardinals has been less effective with an ERA jump from 3.11 to 4.64. His last two starts were a mixed bag with one great start against the Twins and one four-run start the Yankees. While the run prevention hasn’t been reliable as a Cardinal, those two recent starts showcased some of Fedde’s strikeout potential. Seven and eight strikeouts, respectively, marked his two highest totals since joining his new team.
Prediction
The Cardinals don’t seem capable of matching the Brewers’ offense at this point, but it should be a competitive series. Many of the Cardinals’ regulars are rounding into form, although it’s too late for a playoff run. I trust the Brewers’ bullpen more and the power potential combined with depth in the lineup should be enough to take the series.
