POLITICS – The poison of inertia is concentrated in a formula, distributed to the press before the first round of consultations for Matignon on Friday August 23. It was a question of setting as a condition for any nomination the capacity to obtain ” a large and stable majority ” in the National Assembly. Emmanuel Macron had then revealed his game. It is not the deputies who will judge on the basis of the evidence the project of a Prime Minister, as is nevertheless provided for by the institutions.
In the race for Matignon, Macron’s ideal Prime Minister does not exist
It is the head of state who, on the basis of what the parties represented in Parliament are willing to tell him, eliminates in advance the candidacies that he considers doomed to crash in the face of national representation. Lucie Castets’ candidacy was officially rejected for this reason, even if it is obvious that the project of ” rupture ” carried by the NFP candidate constitutes the real cause of her revocation, as reported L’Express.
“Institutional stability”
« This is not a video game, it is not “you lose a game and start again”. There is a budgetary risk, the British government continues to pay the bill and Liz Truss’ mistakes “, recently dodged an Elysée advisor, to justify the refusal of the President of the Republic to let Lucie Castets try her luck in the National Assembly at the very probable risk of a censure voted in concert by the presidential camp, the right and the National Rally.
However, this allowed Emmanuel Macron to disguise his political decision as prior censorship in the name of ” institutional stability “, paradoxically turned against him. Because, in fact, he makes his decision dependent on the goodwill of the three main blocs in the Assembly. Bernard Cazeneuve? Accepted by the central bloc, but censored by the NFP and the RN. Lucie Castets? Supported by the left but censored by the presidential camp, the Republicans and the RN. Xavier Bertrand then? Validated by Macronie and the Republicans, but also censored by the NFP and the RN.
Even the brief option ” technique “, mentioned through the Thierry Beaudet trail followed on Monday, does not escape this irresistible temptation of the parties to exercise their right of life or death, without even having to take responsibility for the vote of censure. ” There is a form of immaturity in the political class, where everyone says “no arrangement”. So I don’t see how he gets out of it, except by really giving the keys to the truck to the left which would demonstrate its minority position in the Assembly. Which would allow us to move on to something else. “, decrypts for Le HuffPost Mathieu Souquière, political scientist and associate expert at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation.
The RN becomes a kingmaker
For the time being, it is clear that the President of the Republic is indeed struggling to get out of the impasse where his criterion of ” “uncensorability” led him. The left continues to claim Matignon, while the right (whose numbers have nevertheless melted away at the Palais Bourbon) is demanding the appointment of a cohabitation Prime Minister from its ranks. In the middle, the central bloc draws red lines that are incompatible with the left (maintaining the pension reform as it stands, in particular), while continuing to dream of tearing the PS away from the NFP (which does not seem likely to happen) to ensure a majority that would not need the leniency of the National Rally to survive. A pious wish at this stage.
Especially since the RN intends to be seen at the Élysée as a kingmaker. Hence this opening (at the cost of a spectacular contradiction) of the establishment of a “ technical government “. Problem: how could the head of state accept the conditions of ” non-censorship ” of the National Rally, while the only clear message of the legislative elections, marked by a solid ” republican front ” backed by a record turnout, remains the barrier to the RN? A barrier which, let us remember, allowed the election of 50% of its troops in the second round.
As a result, it appears highly likely that Emmanuel Macron will have to review his position, since the hypothesis of a personality who would de facto escape a motion of censure clearly does not exist, neither on the left, nor in his camp, nor at the RN. It’s impossible now. Given the waiting time, everyone is annoyed. “, he breathes to the HuffPost a ministerial advisor. From then on, this perspective represents a serious risk for Emmanuel Macron, he who justified the wait and the refusal of Lucie Castets in the name of precisely a ” institutional stability ” that he would not have been able to guarantee. Whether he wanted it or not, he chose to become accountable for the possible fall of the future Prime Minister.
Also see on Le HuffPost:
Prime Minister: RN makes a spectacular U-turn on the question of “technical government”
Édouard Philippe formalizes his candidacy for the next presidential election
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