Which is the Better Long-Term Investment?

Thursday 12th September 2024 09:10 PM

Comparing Gold and Bitcoin

Whether it’s football teams, political parties, or Tesla’s (TSLA) stock prospects, it’s human nature for people to want to biasedly pick their “religion” and begrudgingly stick to it come hell or high water. One of Wall Street’s biggest debates is between Bitcoin bulls like MicroStrategy (MSTR) founder Michael Saylor and “gold bugs” like Peter Schiff. In many ways, the two assets could not be more different. For example, gold a medium of exchange for thousands of years, while Bitcoin’s first known transaction was in the new millennium. Gold is accepted more by the “baby boomer” generation, while much of the younger generation has fully embraced Bitcoin.

Nevertheless, Bitcoin is often called “digital gold” because the two assets share several similarities. Though gold is a physical asset and Bitcoin is digital, each requires “mining.” Investors view each asset as a store of value, providing a means of hedging against inflation. Finally, both enjoy scarcity: Bitcoin has a maximum supply of 21 million, while gold production is projected to slow in ~25 years.

The Government Spending and Inflation Problem

The COVID-19 stimulus checks, the Clean Energy for America Act, and the U.S. support for global conflicts (namely, the War in Ukraine) have all contributed to unprecedented government spending. Throughout the 2000s, U.S. government spending has reached new heights. The U.S. national debt has ballooned to more than $35 trillion, with the interest on that debt expected to reach the mind-boggling $1 trillion level in the next few years.

Over the past 20 years, both political parties have been at fault for the exploding debt. Worse, neither side of the political aisle seems to be motivated to right the ship. While Jerome Powell and the Fed were able to quell the inflation rate with higher interest rates, it doesn’t change the fact that consumer prices are 20% higher than they were in 2020. Though the U.S. remains an economic powerhouse, deficits have a way of snowballing, and history is littered with the economic remains of spending-happy countries like Venezuela and Turkey. Regardless of whether you believe the deficit is an existential threat, inflationary hedges like gold and bitcoin have a place in most portfolios.

Is Gold or Bitcoin a Better Long-Term Investment?

I am a price action trader focused on technical analysis and catalyst-driven investing. However, as someone who owns both Bitcoin and gold in my longer-term accounts, I will try to provide the most unbiased analysis as possible.

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Bitcoin Beats Gold on a Total Return Basis

Over the last decade, Bitcoin has been the top-performing asset globally, averaging a mind-blowing 693% annual return.

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Image Source: Curvo

Over the same period, gold has averaged just over 5% annually.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Whether you compare Bitcoin to gold or any other asset, Bitcoin easily wins the total return debate.

Better Store of Value: Gold or Bitcoin?

The “no free lunches” saying is prescient when unpacking the store of value argument between gold and Bitcoin. To achieve outsized returns, investors must be okay with more volatility. Since 2012, Bitcoin has suffered a 70% drawdown, two 80% drawdowns, and a 90% drawdown.

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Image Source: BiTBO

Conversely, gold’s worst drawdown over the past 40 years was 54%.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

“Store of value” refers to an asset or currency that retains its value over time. Though Bitcoin has gained more value since its inception, the answer to which is a better store of value is dependent on the time frame. For example, if your grandparents were looking for a safe asset that will hold its value over a 3–5-year period, gold would be far more likely not to have a deep drawdown. Furthermore, gold would be much more stress-free to hold because it tends to be far less volatile than Bitcoin.

Bitcoin/Gold Survivability

Because gold has been used as a medium of exchange for thousands of years, it enjoys an unfair advantage from the survivability perspective. Gold has been around for thousands of years, and it will likely continue to be.

That said, Bitcoin has weathered some difficult storms in its short history. First, Bitcoin survived the demise of the “Silk Road” online marketplace, the Mt. Gox exchange hack (which was responsible for 70% of transactions at the time), the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and the FTX exchange’s fraud and subsequent collapse. Despite these tense moments, the Bitcoin network has never been infiltrated due to its unique network attributes like its distributed ledger and its “proof of work” mining protocol.” Nevertheless, gold has an extensive track record as a store of value that is impossible to match in a short time.

Gold and Bitcoin Usability

Each asset’s pros are cons for the other asset in this case. For instance, gold bugs prefer it because it is tangible and is used for jewelry and electronics. Bitcoin bulls prefer it because it is digital and can be more easily used for transfers and international remittances.

Bitcoin and Gold Demand

There is heavy demand for both asset classes. The SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) was the largest ETF launch until the iShares Bitcoin ETF (It will go) came to steal the throne. From a retail perspective, massive demand for Bitcoin has led to healthy profits for crypto exchanges like Coinbase (COIN). Meanwhile, retail juggernaut Costco (COST) reportedly sells ~$200 million worth of gold bars monthly. Central bank buying set a gold buying record in the first half of 2024 as BRIC nations like China seek to move off the U.S. dollar. At the same time, El Salvador holds hundreds of millions worth of Bitcoin.

Should you Buy Gold or Bitcoin?

If you made it this far, this is the answer you have been waiting for. The truth is that the decision to invest between gold and bitcoin comes down to each individual. If you seek to preserve your capital and limit volatility in your portfolio, gold is y the right choice for you. Conversely, if you are willing to sit through more volatility in exchange for capital appreciation, you should be more heavily weighted toward Bitcoin. Remember, just because there are strong feelings on each side of the debate doesn’t mean you can’t own both in your portfolio. Evaluate your goals and risk appetite and find the right investment mix for your situation.

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