Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau suffered a major political setback Wednesday with the surprise announcement by his main left-wing ally that they were ending their political deal to prop up the Liberal minority government.
The head of government does not automatically have to call for new elections, but will have to find new support in parliament to survive the confidence votes.
It was in a video posted on social media that the leader of the New Democratic Party (NDP), Jagmeet Singh, announced that he was withdrawing from this alliance concluded three years ago.
“I’m not going to get into politics today,” the Canadian Prime Minister said, when questioned on the sidelines of a trip to the school in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador, in the east of the country.
In his message, Mr Singh did not mince his words against his former allies: “The liberals are too weak, too selfish and too close to the ultra-rich to fight for the people.”
He also accused Justin Trudeau of not being able to face the Conservative opposition. The latter, led by Pierre Poilievre, is largely ahead in the polls ahead of the legislative elections to be held by the end of October 2025.
According to an Angus Reid poll published Wednesday, the Conservatives are way ahead of the Liberals, with 43% voting intentions against 21%. As for the NDP, it is credited with 19%.
Jagmeet Singh will hold a press conference on Thursday.
After Justin Trudeau’s Liberals narrowly won a snap election in September 2021, the NDP agreed to support the party to protect it from confidence votes that could bring down the government.
In exchange for this support, the NDP was able to adopt several social programs, including a new dental care program for low-income Canadians and a law against the use of replacement workers during a strike.
The agreement was to last until June 2025.
– “No elections in winter” –
“But the pressure was increasing among the New Democrats who wanted to regain their freedom of speech as the elections approached,” Stéphanie Chouinard, professor of political science at the Royal Military College of Canada, explained to AFP.
But that doesn’t mean the NDP will no longer support government bills, political analysts say.
And despite this political upheaval, experts are not expecting elections in the coming weeks.
“The New Democrats don’t necessarily want to bring down the government and the Conservatives can’t bring down the government on their own,” Félix Mathieu, professor of political science at the University of Winnipeg, told AFP.
The Canadian House of Commons currently has 154 Liberal MPs, 119 Conservatives, 32 Bloc Québécois MPs, 24 NDP MPs, two Greens, three independents and four vacant seats.
“It’s a safe bet that the government will fall around the budget, in the spring. Because in the immediate future, no minority group has an interest in the elections being held now, apart from the Conservatives,” believes Ms. Chouinard.
And the smaller parties “need time to reconnect with their own base, to try to find star candidates…”, adds Lori Turnbull, professor at Dalhousie University.
In addition, three provincial elections are scheduled for the fall and, by convention, the legislative elections do not take place at the same time. And adds Stéphanie Chouinard, “as a general rule we avoid elections in winter because of the climate, because we can have storms.”
self/cyb
