They say that the shortest jokes are the best. The one about the appointment of a Prime Minister no longer makes many people laugh. Especially not the left. The name of Lucie Castets, proposed jointly by the Socialists, the Greens, the Insoumis and the Communists was rejected by the President. Since then, it’s been trial balloon after trial balloon. If the name of Thierry Beaudet, tested yesterday, did not last long, there are two who hold the upper hand: Xavier Bertrand, the current President of the Hauts-de-France region, and Bernard Cazeneuve, ex-Socialist and former Prime Minister of François Hollande. If all the members of the New Popular Front are unanimous on the censorship of Xavier Bertrand, it is on the name of Bernard Cazeneuve that all the tensions crystallize, in particular in the Socialist Party.
Xavier Bertrand’s hypothesis seems to have little chance of succeeding.
Announced this morning, in an article in Le Parisien, the Xavier Bertrand hypothesis seems to have little chance of succeeding. It was Emmanuel Macron who, this morning, called the presidents of the Senate and the two LR groups in the National Assembly and the Senate, Gérard Larcher, Laurent Wauquiez and Bruno Retailleau, to gather their opinion on the Xavier Bertrand hypothesis at Matignon. Their validation was given, on condition that it is not censored and that their legislative pact is respected, among other things that the pension reform is not repealed.
But the prospect of Bertrand not being censured at Matignon was short-lived. Indeed, the left promised to censure any project that did not contain its programmatic axes, and in particular the “red line of red lines”, the repeal of the pension reform. “Xavier Bertrand remains a man of the right”, judges Patrick Kanner, the president of the socialist group in the Senate, “if he is chosen, it is not to implement the NFP program”.
A few hours later, it was the National Rally that assured that it would censure a government of Xavier Bertrand. A Macronist from the very beginning assured this: from then on, the Bertrand hypothesis fell through.
The Cazeneuve hypothesis returns to the forefront
The one that remains, then, is the nomination of Bernard Cazeneuve. It may seem attractive to Emmanuel Macron, on the one hand, because it would fracture the New Popular Front. Indeed, the hypothetical entry of Bernard Cazeneuve into Matignon is already causing a stir in the Socialist Party. Since the party’s summer universities last week in Blois, two lines have been clashing within the party with the rose: the one supported by the first secretary Olivier Faure, architect of the NFP, who advocates the investiture of Lucie Castets and does not wish to return to negotiate with Emmanuel Macron. The other, supported by Hélène Geoffroy, the mayor of Vaulx-en-Velin, and Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol, the mayor of Rouen, wishes to continue negotiations, with a view to a “cohabitation government” with Emmanuel Macron. Since Bernard Cazeneuve’s name has been circulating, the latter have supported his candidacy, provided that a certain number of “red lines” are respected in his government program, including the repeal of the pension reform, the increase in the minimum wage or even a revision of the tax policy. The latter are also very critical of France Insoumise, and advocate for a distancing from this political force, to get closer to Raphaël Glucksmann’s small party, Place publique.
A highly anticipated PS national office this evening
Even today, while Emmanuel Macron called the socialists, the rebels and the environmentalists during the day, the communists having already been contacted on Sunday, to resume negotiations, the Cazeneuve hypothesis is making waves in the PS. A national office is being held this evening, and it promises to be difficult. In anticipation, Hélène Geoffroy sent a text message to Olivier Faure, asking him to organize a vote on the non-censorship of a cohabitation government of Bernard Cazeneuve. The outcome of this vote is more than uncertain. In the Senate, a group meeting took place by videoconference in the afternoon. If there is a consensus on the famous programmatic red lines necessary for a non-censorship, there is debate on the advisability of participation in the government. The group is divided between those who consider that participating would be falling into Emmanuel Macron’s trap, and that Bernard Cazeneuve should not be supported if he accepts the post without involving the NFP. The rest think that it is appropriate to support this Prime Minister, described as a “man of the left” by his supporters in the PS. The line will be decided this evening during the national office.
The question that arises at this stage concerns the reaction of other left-wing groups to the nomination of Bernard Cazeneuve, if the famous red lines are respected. “When we say what the red lines are: the repeal of the pension reform, the minimum wage at €1,600, a policy of the power to live, … These are things that were worked on by a coalition and that obtained votes”, replies Guillaume Gontard, president of the environmentalist group in the Senate, “that there are adaptations to the program, yes. But it is Lucie Castets who was chosen by the coalition that came out on top, so why not appoint her?” Not really encouraging for Bernard Cazeneuve. For their part, the Insoumis have made it known through their president in the Assembly Mathilde Panot that they would censure a government of the former Prime Minister.
More surprisingly, the National Rally has made it known that it would not automatically censure a Cazeneuve government. By taking out the calculator, it is therefore for the moment this hypothesis which has the best chance of not being censored. On the sole condition that the socialists do not censure. Which leads a close friend of the President to say that his decision is suspended on the conclusions of the national office this evening. Fortunately, the French have shown since July that patience is one of their qualities.
