In Ukraine, strong push of the Russian offensive in Donbass

The nibbling away of the Donetsk region by Russian troops is accelerating, revealing glaring problems in the organization of the Ukrainian defense. Eleven towns in Donbass are directly threatened by Russian forces advancing towards the city of Pokrovsk, a crucial rail and road junction for the logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). By now advancing at a daily rate of 500 meters to 1 kilometer on several axes, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFRF) are changing the nature of the front. Thus, a gradual transition is taking place from positional warfare to a war of movement, where breakthroughs and pincer effects are beginning at the expense of the Ukrainian defenders.

“It has been a long time since the offensive in the Donbass region has reached such a pace”Vladimir Putin said on Monday, September 2, in front of students at a secondary school in Kyzyl, in the Tuva region, 4,000 kilometers east of the front.

Of course, the FAFR’s movements are far too slow to create surprise effects like the one achieved by Ukrainian forces during the Kursk offensive carried out in early August. Despite the occupation of approximately 1,000 square kilometers of its territory by Ukraine, Moscow has not lightened its offensive in recent weeks, on the contrary redoubling its pressure towards Pokrovsk. The Ukrainian general staff indicated on its Telegram channel on Tuesday, September 3, that half of the 118 Russian assaults in the last twenty-four hours are concentrated in two directions: Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, a city that had 18,000 inhabitants before the large-scale invasion of 2022; the cities are emptying of their inhabitants as the enemy army approaches.

An anomaly

Russian troops are now only 3.5 kilometers from Myrnohrad (“peaceful city” in Ukrainian) and 8 kilometers from Pokrovsk. These two cities form an agglomeration of more than 100,000 inhabitants, with several dozen buildings, which are supposed to form a significant barrier against the Russian advance. “The enemy [russe] will reach [Pokrovsk] by mid-September, but will not be able to take it. The smooth terrain is unfavorable to attackers, and counterattacks from Selydove [au sud] and Kostiantynivka [à l’est] will slow down their progress”predicts the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.

However, recent developments in this area give cause for pessimism. The town of Novohrodivka (14,000 inhabitants), located 13 kilometres south-east of Pokrovsk and with nearly fifty buildings, was lost in less than a week: the Russians entered the town on 22 August and completely conquered it on the 27th. Its high walls should have logically slowed down the Russian offensive. Over the last two years, the FAFR have only managed to overcome such obstacles (at Soledar, Bakhmut or Avdiivka) at the cost of months of intensive bombardments that literally razed the buildings. And at the cost of sacrificing tens of thousands of Russian soldiers. However, Novohrodivka changed hands without suffering heavy destruction, an anomaly noted by many Ukrainian and Russian sources.

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