New US tariffs would cost Mexico one point of GDP

Mexico is the country most exposed to the change in trade and immigration policy of the new US administration, noted an analysis by Moody’s Analytics.

The new American president, Donald Trump, indicated Monday that his administration plans to impose customs duties of 25% on products from Canada and Mexico from February 1.

Imposing tariffs would have a significant impact on trade and nearshoring activities in Mexico, warned Alfredo Coutiño, director for Latin America at Moody’s Analytics.

The flow of foreign investments already faces several obstacles due to certain constitutional reforms carried out in Mexico, in particular that affecting the judiciary, noted the economist.

Growth in the Mexican economy is expected to reach 1.2% in 2025, according to projections from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Trade between Mexico and the United States totaled more than US$800 billion in 2023.