The start of each year is marked by revisions of the growth rates of States by international institutions, notably the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but also regional institutions including the African Development Bank (AfDB).
Compared to forecasts made during the second half of last year, growth projections have been revised slightly upwards. It must be said that the environment is more favorable, even if there are many uncertainties with the new year starting under the “Trump II” era.
Thus, according to the World Bank, the North Africa region should see its growth accelerate from 2.3% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025, then 4.1% in 2026. This development is expected despite an economic situation difficult region marked by the effects of the war in Gaza on the Egyptian economy, the impact of persistent droughts particularly in Morocco and Tunisia, the decline in port activity in Djibouti cause of the crisis in the Middle East…
Despite this situation, Libya is expected to perform very well. According to World Bank projections, after a recession in 2024 (-2.7%), the Libyan gross domestic product is expected to grow by 9.6% in 2025 and 8.4% in 2026. However, the projections concerning Libya are too volatile because of the instability that has prevailed in this country for almost fifteen years. Growth and recession have alternated for years depending on the impact of the political crisis on the oil sector and the evolution of the price of black gold on the international market, knowing that the country depends almost exclusively on its petroleum resources.
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But it is above all in sub-Saharan Africa that we have recorded the highest economic growth rates on the continent. Thus, out of the ten countries expected to record growth rates above 6% in both 2025 and 2026, nine of them are at the level of this region whose growth “expected to consolidate to reach 4.1% in 2025, then 4.3% in 2026, against a backdrop of declining inflation and easing of financial conditions”, according to the World Bank. These are slight upward revisions to the projections for 2025 (+0.2) and 2026 (+0.3).
Among these countries, two countries, Mauritania and Rwanda, will have to post growth rates above 7% in both 2025 and 2026 with projections counting on 7.8% in 2025 and 7.5% in 2026 for each country. If Rwanda is accustomed to these performances thanks to a dynamic economy driven mainly by services and agriculture, for Mauritania, this performance is largely explained by the impacts of the start of the exploitation of new resources, in particular gas with the start-up of the Grand Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) deposit that the country shares with Senegal which should post growth rates of 9.7% in 2025 and 6.0% in 2026, according to World Bank projections. In these two economies, it is the natural resource effect which should boost growth. In addition, the country benefits from the good performance of its iron ore (a production record recorded in 2024) and gold, the price of which currently exceeds $2,700 per ounce.
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In Senegal, in addition to GTA gas, the country has become an oil producer since June 2024. These new resources should have a positive impact on the economies of both countries, if of course they are well managed and invested in vital sectors including the training of quality human resources, infrastructure (power plants, roads, etc.), modernization of the agricultural sector, including livestock, etc.
Senegal is expected to post the best growth rate on the continent in 2025, i.e. 9.7%, thanks to the start of oil exploitation (June 2024) and GTA gas (January 2025). Gas should also boost the Mauritanian economy (7.8% in 2025 and 7.5% in 2026). . DR
The same goes for Uganda, which is expected to post a growth rate of 10.8% in 2026, the highest on the continent, after an expected increase in its GDP of 6.2% in 2025. Here too, this is the effect hydrocarbons which will boost the economic growth of this East African country. The first barrels of oil from this country, whose reserves are estimated at at least 1.4 billion barrels, are expected this year thanks to two fields whose crude will be partly transported via the East African oil pipeline to Tanzania where it will be exported, part will be refined in Uganda and part exported to neighboring countries.
In addition to these old and new oil and gas countries, growth will also be supported by the oil and especially mining sector in Côte d’Ivoire. This country, which built its economy on the agricultural sector, currently being the leading producer of cocoa and cashew nuts in the world, has been diversifying in recent years.
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After the discoveries of gas and oil, the Ivorian economy focused on its significant mineral resources, notably gold. The country could very soon appear in the Top 5 of the largest African gold producers after the launch of several high-value gold mines. These new resources are added to those of manganese, diamonds, lithium, etc. and continue to boost the country’s economic growth with expected growth rates of 6.4% in 2025 and 6.6% in 2026.
-Same scenario for Zambia, whose growth rates of 6.2% and 6.6% will be mainly supported by the mining sector, notably copper, tourism, agriculture, etc.
Among the countries that continue to show high growth rates is Ethiopia. After recording GDP growth of 6.1% in 2024, the country expects 6.5% in 2025 and 7.1% in 2026, returning to its former dynamism which was stopped by Covid -19 and especially by the war in Tigray. The country relies on its agriculture (coffee, flowers, cereals, etc.), its emerging industry thanks to the numerous relocations of Chinese companies, its dynamic service sector (transport, tourism, etc.) and its population of more than 120 million consumers.
Evolution of growth rate forecasts from 2024 to 2026 (World Bank)
| Pays | Growth rate 2024 | Growth rate 2025e | Growth rate 2026p |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benign | 6,3% | 6,4% | 6,3% |
| Ivory Coast | 6,5% | 6,4% | 6,3% |
| Ethiopia | 6,1% | 6,5% | 7,1% |
| Guinea | 5,3% | 6,0% | 6,4% |
| Libya | -2,7% | 9,6% | 8,4% |
| Mauritania | 6,5% | 7,8% | 7,5% |
| Uganda | 6,0% | 6,2% | 10,8% |
| Rwanda | 7,6% | 7,8% | 7,5% |
| Senegal | 6,1% | 9,7% | 6,0% |
| Zambia | 1,2% | 6,2% | 6,6% |
Source: World Bank
These countries will record some of the highest growth rates in the world. However, if these growth rates have enabled improvements, it is clear that they are not always synonymous with significant improvement in the living conditions of populations.
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To this it must be added that these forecasts could be disrupted by several factors. First, there is the effect of uncertainties surrounding global growth in a context that risks being marked by trade wars if the new American president carries out his threats to harshly tax imports from the rest of the world. , particularly from China and Europe. This will certainly have repercussions on African exports.
Then, violent conflicts and growing insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa will negatively influence the growth of many countries which will devote part of their already limited resources to the purchase of weapons instead of investing in productive sectors. and vital.
In addition, climate change (drought, flooding, cyclones, etc.) will continue to harm African economies. Furthermore, the burden of debt services will weigh heavily on the budgets of many countries in the region.
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Finally, the worsening geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Ukraine could once again disrupt global supply chains and result in a new inflationary specter which will particularly affect food products.
Conclusion: in Africa, there are many pitfalls. However, some African countries have shown their resilience in recent years and are today better equipped to deal with crises, provided they have learned lessons from Covid-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war. Unfortunately, there are not many of them. Few have truly invested in economic diversification and especially in the agricultural sector to ensure a certain food security for their populations and avoid imported inflation and its effects on the already fragile African economies.
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