consumption could go up to double in 2050, according to France Stratégie

Water consumption could go up to double in 2050 in France if global warming intensifies and if current usage trends continue, due in particular to the increase in needs linked to irrigation, estimated Monday a France Stratégie report.

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This report was commissioned in the fall of 2023 by the Prime Minister at the time, Elisabeth Borne, a few months after the implementation by the government of the Water Plan, intended to limit the consumption of this resource which was promised to become scarce due to of climate change. Already, “in ten years, renewable fresh water, that is to say that which is renewed through the water cycle, has decreased by 14%. As a result, tensions between uses are emerging in certain territories and at certain times of the year”, notes France Stratégie while presenting its work.

Up to +102% by 2050

To carry out this prospective work, the organization responsible for evaluating public policies relied on three scenarios: the first, called “trend”, involves maintaining current consumption habits without changing anything. The second, called “public policies”, assumes the strict application of restriction and adaptation measures already in place. Finally, a third “disruptive” scenario involves switching to economical use of water.

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She added different projections of global warming, with dry or humid spring-summers, measuring the impact on seven sectors of activity: livestock, irrigation, energy, industry, tertiary, residential and navigation channels. In the event of global warming of +2.4°C between 2041 and 2060 (one of the IPCC scenarios) with significant droughts, water consumption could double (+102%) between 2020 and 2050 in the “trend” scenario and increase by 72% in the “public policies” scenario, the report indicates.

Agriculture, the main water-consuming activity in the future

Only the “disruption” scenario could contain the increase in consumption to +10%, even if there will be sometimes strong variations depending on the region and time of year. Withdrawals, particularly from industry, could stabilize (“trend”) or even decrease (“public policies” or “disruption”), due to the shutdown or modernization of the oldest nuclear power plants.

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On the agricultural side, by 2050, demand for irrigation should however increase “strongly and become the majority”. And unlike energy production (which returns part of the water to natural environments once reprocessed, editor's note), irrigation consumes the majority of the water withdrawn due to plant evapotranspiration. underlines France Stratégie.