France now has 68.6 million inhabitants. In 2024, the natural balance will only reach +17,000, its lowest level since the end of the Second World War.
In question? A drop in births combined with an increase in deaths, explains the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee), in its 2024 demographic report, published this Tuesday, January 14.
An increase in mortality
Between 2023 and 2024, births decreased by 2.2% while the number of deaths increased by 1.1%, estimated at 646,000 deaths. How to explain it? Is the 2023-2024 flu season or the high summer heat to blame? No, replies INSEE.
The increase in mortality is linked to the aging of the population. “Since 2011, the number of deaths has tended to increase due to the arrival at ages of high mortality of the large baby boom generations, born from 1946 to 1974.” After the period of excess mortality linked to the Covid-19 epidemic, the year 2024 remains 5 points higher than the pre-epidemic year of 2019.
An accelerating aging of the population
And the population is aging rapidly. At 1is January 2025, France has 21.8% of inhabitants aged over 65 compared to 16.3% in 2005 and 10.7% of inhabitants aged 75 and over, compared to 8% in 2005.
“The aging of the population has accelerated since the mid-2010s, with the arrival at these ages of large baby boom generations, the oldest of which will be 79 years old in 2025 (and the youngest 51 years old)”, notes INSEE.
The statistics institute also notes that the infant mortality rate, 4.1 deaths per 1,000 births, has not declined since 2005. With 2,700 children dying before their first birthday, it has even increased slightly since 2021.
-Historically high life expectancy
Despite an increase in the number of deaths, life expectancy stabilizes at a historically high level in 2024. “In 2024, life expectancy at birth rises to 85.6 years for women and 80 years for men.”
Life expectancy is stabilizing at a very high level after a sharp increase in 2023 and the sharp decline in the Covid years. As for life expectancy at age 60, it follows the same trend, 27.8 years for women and 23.7 years for men.
What is the life expectancy without disability?
According to a report from the Department of Research, Studies, Evaluation and Statistics (Drees) published on December 31, 2024, life expectancy without disability at age 65 is also increasing. As a reminder, this is the number of years that a person can expect without being limited by a health problem in the activities of daily life. It stands at 12 years for women, and 10.5 years for men.
“Life expectancy without disability at age 65 has increased steadily since 2008, for women (+ 1 year and 11 months) as for men (+ 1 year and 10 months). Over this period, disability-free life expectancy at age 65 has increased faster than life expectancy.”
Other information: “at birth, in 2023, women can expect to live 64.2 years without disability and men, 63.6 years. Life expectancy without disability at birth has decreased by 4 months since 2008 for women; for men, they increase by 10 months.”
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