The far-right AfD has won a clear victory in regional elections in Thuringia, inflicting a historic rout on the three parties in Olaf Scholz’s coalition. Germany is in shock.
Despite warnings from churches, businesses, trade unions and NGOs, nothing prevented the predicted political earthquake. For the first time since the end of the war, the extreme right came out on top in a regional election. Ironically, Thuringia was the first state to be ruled by Nazis in 1930.
With almost 31% of the vote, the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) is ahead of the conservatives (CDU) in Thuringia, who only obtained 24%. The extreme right could even obtain a blocking minority in the Erfurt Parliament (one third of the vote) and lead a policy of systematic obstruction for all important decisions in education or security.
For the three coalition parties, this is more than an electoral debacle. It is a vote of retribution against all the policies of the Scholz government. The chancellor’s two allies even disappear from the political arena: the liberals of the FDP, who are capped at 1%, and the environmentalists, with less than 5%, are ejected from the regional parliament.
Upheaval
The conservatives are therefore the last political force that can stand up to the extreme right in eastern Germany. But the rise of the AfD now poses a major problem for the formation of a stable coalition, as all the parties have ruled out an alliance with this party close to the neo-Nazis in this region. The situation is so complicated that the conservatives, in order to block the AfD, could call on Sahra Wagenknecht in Thuringia, a defector from the radical left (Die Linke), who achieved the feat of gathering 16% of the votes with her party created at the beginning of the year (BSW). To break the political impasse, the conservative right has not ruled out an alliance at the regional level with this former Stalinist who has become pro-Russian. The negotiations are expected to be very difficult, as Sahra Wagenknecht has set as a condition the cessation of arms deliveries to Ukraine.
The Saxony region also renewed its parliament. In this other AfD stronghold, the conservatives are managing to barely stay in the lead and are not sure of renewing their tripartite coalition with the social democrats and the ecologists. Here again, Sahra Wagenknecht could allow the conservatives to lead the region. As if in France Jean-Luc Mélenchon were to ally himself with LR.
For the leader of the German right, the future of his candidacy for chancellor is at stake in the coming weeks. The CDU has decided to choose its candidate for the legislative elections that will take place in a year’s time at the end of these elections in the East. However, the vote is a cruel admission of failure for Friedrich Merz, the president of the CDU, who is considering running for chancellor and has been very involved in this regional campaign. While he had promised to “divide by two” The AfD vote, by winning over those disappointed by Merkel’s migration policy, has tripled the number of far-right voters.
There are many contenders for the throne, including Markus Söder, the head of Bavaria, but also Hendrik Wüst, the president of North Rhine-Westphalia, the most powerful region in Germany. Friedrich Merz could himself draw the consequences of this bitter defeat by withdrawing his candidacy.
Updated at 7:20 p.m.
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