Given a clear lead in the Thuringian elections by exit polls on Sunday, September 1, the AfD has become the first far-right party to win a regional election in Germany since the Second World War.
A first in the country since the post-war period. The German far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won a large majority on Sunday, September 1, in the elections in Thuringia, in the east of the country, and is hot on the heels of the conservatives in Saxony, according to exit polls.
Unprecedented results for this party which represent a new blow for the fragile coalition of Olaf Scholz. The co-leader of the AfD, Alice Weidel, welcomed a “historic success” in the regional elections.
The test polls in these two regions of the former GDR, electoral strongholds of the extreme right, took place in a particularly tense context, more than a week after the triple knife murder attributed to a Syrian in Solingen, which shocked the country and rekindled a lively debate on immigration.
“A clear mandate to govern”
In Thuringia, one of the smallest German states where the far right is led by Björn Höcke, one of its most radical figures, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is widely expected to be ahead (30.5 to 33.5%), ahead of the conservative CDU (24.5%), according to the first polls after the closing of the polling stations broadcast by public television stations ARD and ZDF.
In Saxony, the conservative CDU has a slight lead (31.5 to 32%), closely followed by the AfD (with 30 to 31.5%).
A newcomer, the BSW party, led by former far-left muse Sahra Wagenknecht, is making a spectacular breakthrough, with scores of between 12 and 16% in both Länder, and could pose as kingmaker in the future formation of regional governments.
Although AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla says his party has “a clear mandate to govern” in Thuringia, it is unlikely that the party will lead the region, with all other parties refusing to form a coalition with it.
“We are ready to talk with all parties,” Tino Chrupalla told ZDF television.
The German conservative CDU, for their part, repeated after the announcement of the results that they would not ally with the far-right AfD party to form a government majority in the parliaments of Thuringia and Saxony. “Voters know that we are not forming a coalition with the AfD,” said CDU Secretary General Carsten Linnemann, acknowledging that finding a parliamentary majority “will not be easy.”
Solingen attack used at ballot boxes
Both the AfD and the BSW have won over voters with their virulent anti-immigration rhetoric and calls for an end to arms deliveries to Ukraine, a position that is very popular in these regions of the former communist GDR where the fear of war remains deeply rooted.
The first results also confirm a new major setback for the Chancellor’s coalition government with the Greens and the FDP liberals, one year before the 2025 parliamentary elections. His Social Democratic Party (SPD), already at a low level during the previous term, recorded a score of between 6.5 and 8.5%. The Greens themselves are leaving the Thuringian parliament, and the FDP liberals would no longer be represented in any of the regional assemblies.
These states, which have significant prerogatives in the German system in terms of education and security, could be governed by broad, heterogeneous alliances of right and left.
AfD leaders have sought to capitalise on the shock of the attack in the western German city of Solingen, accusing successive federal governments of sowing “chaos”. The alleged assailant, suspected of links to the Islamic State group, had managed to evade a deportation order. Under pressure, the Scholz government announced tougher gun rules and immigration controls.
On immigration, “there must be extreme changes. That would be possible with the AfD,” says Jörg, an AfD voter who prefers not to give his name. The 54-year-old wholesaler says he is in favor of more deportations of foreign criminals.
The party, essentially eurosceptic when it was created in 2013, became more radical after the great migration crisis of 2015, the Covid-19 pandemic and then the Russian war in Ukraine which weakened the first European economy and caused inflation to soar. It has won several electoral successes in recent months, obtaining the best score in its history in the European elections in June.
The former GDR has proven fertile ground for the party, due to persistent inequalities since reunification in 1990 and a deep demographic crisis linked to the departure of young people to other regions, despite a renewed economic attractiveness.
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