Acceleration
On Sunday, the party presidents will resume discussions on taxation (tax reform, capital gains, etc.). This aspect was referred to the working groups, where each formation is represented by an elected official and a collaborator. If this aspect is validated on Monday or Tuesday, Arizona could be formed within 10 days, we are informed.
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Migration has not been discussed since December, but, without having a consensus, the negotiators could move fairly quickly on this issue because the differences here are not insurmountable. The vision of the Arizona presidents also seems to converge on defense and energy issues.
15 ministers
As negotiations accelerate, the question arises of who will carry forward the proposals contained in the government agreement. Officially, the negotiators respond that it is still too early to talk about ministerial casting. Everything in its time. First we negotiate the content and then we debate the skills. Already negotiating portfolios means taking the risk of having biased agreements depending on the party in charge. Training could require a larger budget for an SPF if it knows that it will have supervision. But within the parties, the question raises eyebrows and speculation is rife.
At this stage, one thing is certain: there will be fewer fewer heads in the government than under Vivaldi. According to article 99 of the Constitution, a government is made up of a maximum of 15 ministers, with as many French-speaking ministers as Dutch-speaking ones. If we refer to the electoral weight of each and without counting the post of Prime Minister which will (very probably) go to Bart De Wever, the seats should be allocated as follows: 4 for the N-VA, 4 for the MR, 3 for Les Engagés, 2 for Vooruit and 2 for the CD&V.
Health, social security, justice
Once the skills have been allocated to the different political colors, it will be up to the party to designate who will take which position. At MR and at Les Engagés, selection is a presidential prerogative. Surprises from the chefs cannot therefore be ruled out. At Vooruit, at the CD&V and at the N-VA, the tradition is that the president presents his choice of minister to the national council of the party which then validates.
At the MR, President Georges-Louis Bouchez has already announced that he would like to join the government. In his eyes, all presidents should do so, to avoid burdening the negotiation process. If the Montois goes up, it will undoubtedly be for a skill matching his costume. We often talk about the Interior, but we have recently also heard about Justice and even Finance. The president should then change the party’s statutes which, for the moment, prevent it from combining. “A formality”we hear internally.
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The MR, which was particularly offensive on the defense of nuclear power under Vivaldi, could also run for Energy. On October 24, in plenary session, the President of the Chamber Peter De Roover (N-VA) made a joke by suggesting that MP Mathieu Bihet be the new Minister of Energy…
Foreign Affairs, which since Louis Michel (MR), has, in 25 years, almost always been led by liberals, could fall into the hands of the CD&V. Minister Annelies Verlinden makes it known everywhere that she is aiming for the post.
Another name that already seems established: Theo Francken (N-VA) at Defense. The deputy has never hidden his interest in the position and he constantly communicates on all issues related to it. When asked by Humo magazine what his priorities would be as Minister of Defense, the Lubbeekois replied: “We urgently need anti-aircraft weapons and armed drones“.
Arm wrestling
Health could be the subject of a showdown. Franck Vandenbroucke (Vooruit) wishes to continue in this position but Les Engagés, who campaigned on this theme, would also like to embody this skill.
The Engagés figures who seem predestined to move into an executive are Vanessa Matz and Jean-Luc Crucke, who are very active at the negotiating table. On the MR side, it is the outgoing minister David Clarinval who should come back. At the N-VA, we note the almost permanent presence of Jan Jambon while at the CD&V, President Sammy Mahdi is very often accompanied by Vincent Van Peteghem.
Obviously, everything can still change after the distribution of skills…
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