The day after the death of 38 people in the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane in Kazakhstan, an investigation is underway to determine the circumstances of the tragedy. However, military experts and aviation specialists are already formulating hypotheses, pushing, Thursday, December 26, the Kazakh authorities to denounce “speculations” around the accident. While the hypothesis of a shooting is raised by sources, mainly anonymous, in the international media, it is not “not possible” for the time being to determine the cause of the tragedy, warned the President of the Senate, Maulen Ashimbaev. “We have to wait for the end of the investigation”underlined for his part the spokesperson for the Kremlin, Dmitri Peskov.
Suspicious holes in the fuselage
Some experts support the trail of the downed plane, noting visible impacts on the plane’s fuselage in photos and videos taken at the crash site. On the social network Telegram, Russian blogger and military expert Yuri Podoliaka assured that these marks were similar to holes possibly caused by “an anti-aircraft missile system”. Xavier Tytelman, aeronautical expert, also judges on “was hit by an anti-aircraft missile” and emphasizes that “lThe impacts on the drift are characteristic of schrapnel [fragments] missiles.
BFMTV’s aeronautical consultant, Jean Serrat, speaks on the channel. “The images we have had since this morning of the entire rear section show very clearly that there was a shot towards this plane”he analyzed before adding that“We can clearly see the holes going from the inside to the outside.” “The traces we see on the plane still suggest that it is quite probable” that he was shot down by a missile, Jean-Paul Troadec, former director of the Bureau of Investigation and Analysis for Civil Aviation Security, also explained to AFP.
Furthermore, Ukrainian drone attacks have been reported in recent weeks in Chechnya. Russian authorities announced Wednesday drone strikes in two neighboring regions of this Republic, North Ossetia and Ingushetia, hundreds of kilometers from the Ukrainian front line.
On the kyiv side, Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko, head of the center for combating disinformation within the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, calls into question the Russian air defense system. “The plane was damaged by the Russians and was sent to Kazakhstan, instead of making an emergency landing in Grozny to save lives”he said on X.
A trajectory that does not correspond to the flight plan
The plane was flying between Baku, capital of Azerbaijan, and Grozny, capital of the Russian Caucasian Republic of Chechnya. But it crashed on the other side of the Caspian Sea, near the port of Aktau in western Kazakhstan, located far east of its original destination. The former director of the BEA, Jean-Paul Troadec, told AFP that the trajectory followed by the plane was “a big unknown” of the affair.
The Russian civil aviation agency Rosaviatsia explained that“due to an emergency situation on board the plane, its commander had decided to ‘go’ to another aerodrome” and that “Aktau had been chosen”. For its part, the specialized site Flightradar24, which monitors flights in real time, assured X that the aircraft had suffered during its flight “significant GPS interference”. The plane has a time “stopped sending positioning data” then sent data “probably false”before the situation returns to normal.
The bird trail mentioned for a time by the company
Azerbaijan Airlines initially claimed on Wednesday that its plane had hit a flock of birds. But the company removed this information. This explanation was also put forward by the Russian civil aviation agency Rosaviatsia. The regional department of the Kazakh Ministry of Health reported “the explosion of a balloon” on board the device.
The plane was carrying 62 passengers and five crew members. According to the Kazakh Emergency Situations Ministry, 38 people were killed and “29 survivors, including three children, were hospitalized”. There were 37 Azerbaijani nationals, six Kazakh nationals, three Kyrgyz nationals and 16 Russian nationals on board the plane, according to the Kazakh Transport Ministry. Fourteen survivors arrived in Azerbaijan on Thursday, according to the Tass agency, while nine injured Russians, including a child, were repatriated, according to the authorities of this country.
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